National Pending Sales Fell 11 Percent. Las Vegas Pending Sales Fell Almost 21 Percent

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

Two big national reports landed this week, and both pointed the same way.

First, the National Association of REALTORS, or NAR, released its Pending Home Sales Index on Oct. 20. The index fell to 66.0 in September. That is down 7.3 percent from August and 11.3 percent from September of last year. Pending sales fell in all four regions of the country, both month over month and year over year. The West, which includes Nevada, had the biggest monthly drop at 9.2 percent, and it was down 15.0 percent from a year ago. The South fell 12.0 percent from a year ago, the Northeast fell 9.4 percent and the Midwest fell 8.7 percent.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun put it plainly: "Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates." He also said, "Buyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably."

Second, Redfin published its weekly housing update on Oct. 22. The article, written by Redfin data journalist Dana Anderson, carried the headline "U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink to a New Low." Redfin counted 281,749 pending sales nationally in the four weeks ending Oct. 18. That is down 14.4 percent from a year earlier and down 1.9 percent from the week before. It is the lowest level in Redfin's weekly records, which go back to 2021. Pending sales fell in every one of the 50 most populous metros Redfin tracks, for the second week in a row.

Then comes the Las Vegas number. In the same Redfin report, Las Vegas pending sales were down 20.6 percent from a year earlier. Only four big metros fell harder: Seattle at 28.8 percent, San Diego at 25.4 percent, Atlanta at 23.8 percent and Denver at 21 percent. Redfin also found Las Vegas new listings down 8.4 percent from a year ago, another top-five decline. So fewer buyers are signing contracts, and fewer sellers are putting new homes on the market.

A real estate agent holding a Home for Sale sign and a clipboard outside a house, as Las Vegas listings wait longer for buyers to sign contracts

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Here is the national versus local picture in one place. NAR says U.S. pending sales are down 11.3 percent from a year ago. Redfin says U.S. pending sales are down 14.4 percent. Redfin says Las Vegas pending sales are down 20.6 percent. No matter which national number you pick, Las Vegas is falling faster. If you only read national headlines, you would think the slowdown here is milder than it really is.

Closed sales tell a similar story. The Las Vegas REALTORS September report, covered by FOX5, showed single-family home sales down 7.4 percent from a year earlier and condo and townhome sales down 12.6 percent. A total of 2,169 homes, condos and townhomes sold in September. Since pending sales usually turn into closed sales over the next month or two, a 20.6 percent drop in pending deals is a warning that closed sales could slide further this fall.

At the same time, homes are piling up. Las Vegas REALTORS counted 7,995 single-family homes listed without offers at the end of September, up 6.6 percent from a year ago. There were 2,796 condos and townhomes without offers, up 7.3 percent. The market now has about five months of supply, up from roughly four a year earlier. Redfin calls four to five months balanced nationally, but in Las Vegas the trend is clearly moving toward buyers.

For buyers, that adds up to leverage. Fewer people are competing for the same homes. Sellers who have been sitting for weeks are more open to price cuts, seller credits and help with closing costs. Nationally, Redfin found 21.7 percent of listings had a price drop and the typical home sat 50 days.

For sellers, the message is different. You are not competing with last year's market. You are competing with every other listing in your zip code for a smaller group of buyers. Pricing right on day one matters more now than it has in years.

Prices have not cracked, though. The Las Vegas REALTORS median single-family price in September was $470,000, flat from a year ago and down 1.1 percent from August. That is still below the record of $490,000 set in May and June. The median condo and townhome price was $290,000, down 1.4 percent from a year ago. That tells you the slowdown is showing up in the number of deals, not in a big price drop, at least so far.

A few other local numbers from the same Las Vegas REALTORS report help fill in the picture. Cash buyers made up 23.5 percent of September sales, about the same as the 23.0 percent a year earlier. Short sales and foreclosures were just 1.1 percent of sales, up from 0.5 percent but still near historic lows. That matters because a slowdown with very few distressed sales is a lot calmer than the kind of slowdown Las Vegas lived through after 2008. Owners are not being forced to sell. Many are simply choosing to wait.

Think about what that means on a normal street in Spring Valley, Mountains Edge or Centennial Hills. A few years ago, a nicely updated home might get several offers in a weekend. Today, the same home might get a couple of showings and one serious buyer, and that buyer knows there are other homes down the street. That is what a 20.6 percent drop in signed contracts feels like on the ground.

Background and History

The main reason for the slowdown is mortgage rates. Redfin's report cites a weekly average rate of 7.4 percent from Freddie Mac. Redfin also says the typical U.S. monthly mortgage payment hit $2,796, up 10.4 percent from a year ago and the second highest in its records. That is a big jump for buyers, even though Redfin's national median sale price of $390,614 was up just 0.2 percent from a year earlier.

Other national numbers in the Redfin report show a market cooling, not collapsing. Active listings were up 2.1 percent from a year ago, to 1,507,161. New listings were down 2.7 percent. The country had 4.4 months of supply, up from 4. About 23.3 percent of homes still sold above list price, and the average home sold for 98.4 percent of its list price. Redfin says buyers nationwide have more negotiating power than they have had in over a decade.

In other words, homes did not get much more expensive this year. The cost of borrowing did. When rates rise fast, some buyers drop out, some wait, and some shrink their budget. That shows up first in pending sales, because pending sales count the moment a buyer signs.

Three people at a table reviewing and signing paperwork, like a home purchase contract that becomes a pending sale before closing

Las Vegas REALTORS President George Kypreos said it this way in the group's September report: "Recently rising mortgage rates are playing a bigger role in the housing market." The same report noted that sales so far this year are tracking close to 2025, which had the lowest yearly total since 2007. For comparison, 2021 was the record year with 50,010 sales.

It also helps to know what each number measures. NAR's index tracks signed contracts on existing homes using about 40 percent of MLS data each month, and an index of 100 equals the average contract activity in 2001. Redfin's numbers come from homes listed or sold in more than 900 metro areas, measured over rolling four-week periods. Las Vegas REALTORS reports closed MLS sales in Southern Nevada each month, not counting new homes sold directly by builders. They are different tools, so the exact percentages differ. But all three point in the same direction.

What Happens Next

Pending sales are a preview. NAR says monthly contract activity has historically tracked closed existing-home sales over the following two months. So when Las Vegas REALTORS releases its October and November numbers, expect closed sales to reflect this slowdown. Watch the count of homes sold and the inventory number in those reports, not just the median price.

Rates are the big swing factor. Yun said mortgage rates may be near a peak, but he called energy prices and inflation "highly uncertain." Freddie Mac's weekly survey on Oct. 22 showed the 30-year rate dipped to 7.32 percent from 7.40 percent the week before, the first weekly drop since August. One small dip does not change the market. A steady move down would bring some buyers back quickly.

Also watch new listings. Redfin found Las Vegas new listings down 8.4 percent. If fewer sellers list, it keeps inventory from ballooning and helps prices hold. If buyers return before sellers do, the balance could shift again. Right now, buyers have the stronger hand.

Ryan's Take

I see this every day in the southwest valley and Summerlin. Showings are slower, buyers are more careful, and the homes that sit are usually the ones priced like it is still spring. A 20.6 percent drop in signed contracts is a big number, and I do not want anyone to read it as a crash. Prices are holding. What has changed is the speed and the leverage.

If you are a buyer who has been waiting for a better shot, this is it in terms of negotiating. You can ask for credits, ask for repairs, and take your time. The tradeoff is the rate. If you are a seller, you can still sell. You just need to price for today's buyer, make your home easy to say yes to, and be ready to negotiate. The sellers I see winning right now are the ones who get ahead of the market instead of chasing it down with price cuts.

A modern home with a red Home for Sale sign in the front yard, one of thousands of Las Vegas listings without offers as inventory climbs

What You Can Do

If you are buying in Las Vegas, Henderson, Summerlin or North Las Vegas, get fully pre-approved so you know your payment at today's rate. Then look closely at homes that have been on the market a few weeks. Those sellers tend to be the most open to a deal. Ask about seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown. A credit that lowers your rate can do more for your monthly payment than a small price cut.

If you are selling, start with what has actually sold near you in the last 60 to 90 days, not what neighbors are asking. Get your home clean, repaired and photo-ready before it goes live, because the first two weeks bring the most attention. Think about offering a credit up front so your home stands out from the thousands of listings without offers.

If you are a move-up owner, remember that a slow market cuts both ways. You may give a little on the home you sell, but you also have more leverage on the home you buy. Line up both sides of the move with a plan, so you are not stuck carrying two mortgages or rushing into a home you do not love. In a market with this many listings, a contingent offer is not the deal killer it was a few years ago, and some sellers will gladly take one.

Whether you are buying or selling, put your top three priorities on paper before you start. Is it price, monthly payment, timing or terms? In a market where signed contracts are down this much, almost everything is open to talk about, and knowing what matters most keeps you from giving away the wrong thing.

If you are not moving yet, keep an eye on the monthly Las Vegas REALTORS report and on weekly mortgage rates. Those two numbers will tell you more about your home's value than any national headline.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com