Analytics Give Vegas a 93.9 Percent Playoff Chance in a Weak Pacific Division

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

On Oct. 22, 2026, SinBin.vegas writer Jason Pothier published a story titled "VGK Only One Of Two Pacific Division Teams Not Underwater." It looked at early playoff odds from MoneyPuck, a public website that projects how likely each NHL team is to reach the postseason.

Vegas sat at the top of the Pacific. MoneyPuck gave the Golden Knights a 93.9 percent playoff chance and a projection of 105.6 points for the full season. Edmonton was close behind at 88.7 percent and 102.3 points. After that, the drop was steep.

Here is the full Pacific list from the article, in order of playoff odds:

Vegas Golden Knights: 93.9 percent, 105.6 projected points
Edmonton Oilers: 88.7 percent, 102.3 projected points
Los Angeles Kings: 42.9 percent, 89.2 projected points
Seattle Kraken: 34.5 percent, 87.5 projected points
Anaheim Ducks: 31.8 percent, 86.7 projected points
San Jose Sharks: 25.7 percent, 85.4 projected points
Calgary Flames: 5.7 percent, 75.1 projected points
Vancouver Canucks: 2.7 percent, 72.1 projected points

Pothier pointed out that the bottom six Pacific teams had a combined .401 points percentage. He compared that to the pace of a 70-point lottery team. He also wrote that if the NHL seeded the conference one through eight, only the Golden Knights and Oilers would qualify from the Pacific. His summary line was simple: "The third spot in the Pacific Division should be up for grabs all season."

Now the timing. When those odds were posted, Vegas had already lost once, a 6-2 home loss to Tampa Bay on Oct. 20 that ended the homestand and left the team at 8-3-0. Then came two more losses. The St. Louis Blues won 6-2 on Oct. 22 at Enterprise Center. The Columbus Blue Jackets won 2-1 in overtime on Oct. 24 at Nationwide Arena, on an Adam Fantilli power-play goal just under a minute into overtime. That left Vegas at 8-4-1 with 17 points. The two losses after Oct. 22 are not in the 93.9 percent figure. We have not seen updated odds, so we are not printing a new number here.

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

For a lot of Las Vegas families, the Golden Knights are more than a team. They are a weeknight plan, a reason to text your neighbor, and a shared thing that ties a fast-growing valley together. When the team drops three straight, people feel it. This story is a useful reminder that one bad week in October does not decide a season.

The math matters because of how the NHL playoffs work. The top three teams in each division get in, plus two wild cards per conference. In a division where only two teams look strong, a team like Vegas has some room for a slump. That does not mean the games do not count. It means the margin is wider than it feels after a 6-2 loss.

It also matters for planning. If you are thinking about buying tickets for a spring game, a strong playoff outlook is part of the picture. Late-season games against division rivals tend to carry more weight. Pothier noted that Vegas plays 10 of its final 15 games against Pacific opponents. Those April nights at T-Mobile Arena could decide seeding.

And for the many people across Henderson, Summerlin, Spring Valley and North Las Vegas who follow the team from home, it is simply good news to hold onto. The team started the season on fire. The losing streak is real, and so is the cushion.

There is a local business angle too. Home games bring crowds to the Strip, to Toshiba Plaza, and to sports bars all over the valley. A team that stays in the race keeps that energy going deeper into the year. A team that plays into May keeps it going longer still.

Background and History

This is Season X for the Golden Knights, their 10th season since they joined the NHL in 2017. In that time the team has built a reputation for showing up in spring. The SinBin article gives some recent history that explains why the Pacific looks so lopsided.

Over the past four seasons, Vegas and Edmonton combined for 15 playoff series wins, according to Pothier. The other six Pacific teams combined for three. The Pacific has sent the Western Conference's team to the Stanley Cup Final four straight years. Vegas or Edmonton has reached the conference final seven straight times. The last Pacific team other than those two to reach the conference final was San Jose in 2019.

Some of the teams at the bottom have been there a while. Pothier noted that Vancouver finished last season with a .354 points percentage. That helps explain why its odds were under 3 percent this early.

Vegas Golden Knights players gather around a trophy on the ice after a playoff series win

This week's slide had a few causes, based on team and league recaps. The penalty kill struggled. SinBin.vegas reported on Oct. 23 that Vegas had allowed a power-play goal in four straight games, and the Columbus overtime winner extended that to five. Forward Mitch Marner missed the games in St. Louis and Columbus for the birth of his second child, according to NHL.com. And the offense cooled, with Vegas scoring two goals in each of the losses to Tampa Bay and St. Louis and one in Columbus. The Columbus game was also the team's first overtime loss of the season.

The details behind those headlines are worth a closer look, because they are the things a playoff model watches too.

The penalty kill. In its Oct. 23 story, SinBin.vegas put the Vegas penalty kill at 67.9 percent, fifth-worst in the league at that point. It was the team's worst penalty-killing stretch since December 2023. The site also reported that defenseman Brayden McNabb was on the ice for seven of the nine power-play goals Vegas had allowed. Noah Hanifin was called out as the bright spot. There is a flip side, too. Vegas had three shorthanded goals, among the league leaders, including Mark Stone's shorthanded goal against Tampa Bay.

The offense. SinBin.vegas noted after the Columbus game that Vegas scored 43 goals in its first 31 periods of the season and only 3 in its last 8. That is a sharp turn for a team that opened the season 8-2-0. Without Marner, the team moved Trevor Connelly up to the top line with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone in Columbus.

The goaltending. On Oct. 24, SinBin.vegas looked at the Carter Hart and Adin Hill tandem. Both carry .904 career save percentages. The team's save percentage ranked 19th in the NHL at .885, below the league average of .892, and Vegas was 0-4 when allowing four or more goals. Hart started in Columbus and made 18 saves. Hill started in St. Louis and made 25.

None of those trends were fully baked into the Oct. 22 odds, and some of them, like the penalty kill, got worse after. That is the honest reason to treat 93.9 percent as a snapshot and not a promise.

So the context is a team that started 8-2-0, ran into a rough week, and still sits in a division where most of its rivals were already below the playoff line.

What Happens Next

The Golden Knights come home for two games. First is the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 7 p.m. at T-Mobile Arena. That is the team's annual Noche de Los VGK theme night. You can watch on Scripps Sports (The Spot, Vegas 34), stream on KnightTime+, or listen on X 107.9 and 105.7 Maxima, according to the team.

Next is the Nevada Day matinee against the New Jersey Devils on Friday, Oct. 30, at 3 p.m. The team says it will wear specially designed Nevada Day jerseys that will be signed and auctioned. Nevada Day is a state holiday, so for many families this is the easiest home game of the year to get to.

After that, the team's theme night schedule lists Military Appreciation Knight against the Utah Mammoth on Nov. 11 and Hockey Fights Cancer against the Nashville Predators on Nov. 13. Watch the penalty kill, watch for Marner's return, and watch the odds. When MoneyPuck updates after the two losses, the Vegas number will likely come down some. The question is how much, and whether the rest of the Pacific closes the gap.

There are bright spots to watch on the ice, too. The team's Oct. 24 Morning Skate Report listed Jack Eichel tied for fourth in the NHL with 19 points and Mark Stone tied for fifth with 8 goals. It also listed William Karlsson nine points from becoming the franchise's all-time leading scorer. Karlsson is an original Golden Knight from the 2017 team, so that record could fall in front of a home crowd at T-Mobile Arena this season. Those numbers were posted before the Columbus game, so check the team site for the latest counts.

One more thing to track: Pothier's point about the third playoff spot. With Los Angeles, Seattle, Anaheim and San Jose all bunched in the 85 to 89 projected point range, that race could stay messy all year.

Ryan's Take

I live and work in this valley, and I can tell you the Golden Knights are part of why people fall for Las Vegas. When I show homes in the southwest valley or Summerlin, buyers moving here from other states ask about schools, commute times, and what there is to do. Pro sports come up a lot more than they used to. A team that wins, and keeps the city buzzing deep into spring, is part of what makes this feel like a real hometown and not just a place people visit.

I also like how this story is handled. The odds were real when they were published, and they were calculated before two losses. Saying that plainly is the honest way to read any number, whether it is a playoff projection or a home price report. Know the date. Know what changed since. Then decide how much weight to give it. That is how I want my clients to look at market data too.

Vegas Golden Knights game day graphic for the Oct. 24 road game at Nationwide Arena in Columbus

What You Can Do

If the skid has you worried, check the source yourself. MoneyPuck posts its odds publicly, and SinBin.vegas covers the team daily. Look at the date on any projection you see. A number from Oct. 22 does not include the games played after it.

If you want to see the team in person, the next two home games are close together. Ottawa is Tuesday, Oct. 27, at 7 p.m. for Noche de Los VGK. New Jersey is Friday, Oct. 30, at 3 p.m. for Nevada Day. Ticket information is on the Golden Knights website. If you live in Henderson, the AHL's Henderson Silver Knights also play at Lee's Family Forum, and they run $5 Beer Friday at Friday home games this season.

And if you are thinking about moving to the valley, or moving within it, ask yourself what matters most in a neighborhood. Easy access to the Strip on game night is a real perk for some families. I am happy to walk through which areas fit your life best.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com