National Home Values Are Up 1 Percent. Zillow Says Las Vegas Values Are Down 2.7 Percent

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

On Oct. 6, 2026, Zillow released its September Market Report. The headline was about a slowdown. Newly pending sales fell 8.5 percent from a year earlier, and closed sales of existing homes fell 2.5 percent, based on Zillow's early estimate. Zillow called it "an early winter in the housing market."

Nationally, the Zillow Home Value Index put the typical home at $366,913. That is 1 percent higher than a year ago, but 0.5 percent lower than August. About 27.4 percent of listings took a price cut in September, up from 26.2 percent a year earlier. Homes took a median of 29 days to go pending, two days longer than last year. The typical mortgage payment on a U.S. home was $1,922 with 20 percent down, 6.7 percent higher than a year ago.

For Las Vegas, Zillow's metro table shows a typical home value of $422,534. That is down 0.5 percent from August and down 2.7 percent from September 2025. Inventory was up 3.7 percent from a year ago, and Zillow's sales estimate was down 2.5 percent. The typical rent was $1,732, up 0.5 percent.

Now the other two numbers. Las Vegas REALTORS reported a single-family median price of $470,000 for September, unchanged from a year earlier. Single-family sales were down 7.4 percent and condo and townhome sales were down 12.6 percent. Redfin, in its Oct. 12 report on pending sales, listed a Las Vegas median sale price of $441,985, up 0.5 percent. Redfin also said pending sales in Las Vegas fell 10.9 percent and 18.6 percent of deals fell through.

So for one city and one month, we have a 2.7 percent drop, no change and a 0.5 percent gain. None of these sources is wrong. They are just measuring different things.

Source	What it measures	Las Vegas, September 2026	Change from a year ago
Zillow Home Value Index	Estimated value of a typical home, all home types	$422,534	Down 2.7 percent
Redfin	Median sale price, metro, includes condos	$441,985	Up 0.5 percent
Las Vegas REALTORS	Median sale price, single-family homes only	$470,000	Flat

Las Vegas is also not alone in the West. In Zillow's same table, Phoenix values were down 1.1 percent, Denver was down 1.7 percent, Seattle was down 2.2 percent and Austin was down 3.9 percent. Riverside, California, was up 0.5 percent. So the Vegas dip fits a wider pattern in many Sun Belt and Western metros, even while the national index is up.

Aerial view of a suburban neighborhood with rows of houses and streets, the kind of area a home value index tries to measure

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Here is the problem with a headline. If you own a home in Henderson or Summerlin and you read that U.S. home values are up 1 percent, you might think your house gained value too. Zillow says the typical Las Vegas home did the opposite. An owner who goes off national news could guess too high by thousands of dollars.

That matters most if you are about to sell. Pricing too high is one of the most common mistakes sellers make. When a home sits, buyers start to wonder what is wrong with it. And with 27.4 percent of listings nationally already taking a price cut, buyers are used to waiting for one.

It matters for buyers too. If you see a $470,000 median and a $422,534 typical value, you might think one is a "real" price and the other is not. In truth, they answer different questions. Knowing which question each one answers keeps you from overpaying or from writing off a fair offer.

And it matters for people who are not buying or selling at all. Your home's value affects your equity, your refinance options and how you plan for the future. A clear read on the local number is worth more than any national average.

Renters are part of this story too. Zillow says the typical U.S. rent rose 2.7 percent to $1,932, the biggest yearly gain since April 2025. Las Vegas rent rose more slowly, up 0.5 percent to $1,732. Zillow also says a household earning the median income would need 34.3 percent of its income for the typical mortgage payment nationally, compared with 26.3 percent for rent. That gap is why many people are still choosing to rent for now, even as home values here dip.

Here is a simple way to think about the gap. Picture two neighbors. One checks a value estimate online and sees a lower number than last year. The other hears that the median sale price is flat. Both are looking at real data. But neither number was built for their specific house, their lot or the work they did on the kitchen. That is where local comparable sales come in.

Background: Why Three Sources Give Three Answers

Zillow's number is a value estimate. The Zillow Home Value Index estimates what a typical home in the area is worth, whether or not it sold that month. It is built from Zillow's home value models across lots of homes, not just the ones that closed. That makes it smoother and slower to move. It is a good way to see the overall trend for the whole metro, including houses, condos and townhomes. It is the measure that says Las Vegas values are down 2.7 percent.

Las Vegas REALTORS' number is a median sale price for single-family homes. It comes from the local MLS. Take every single-family home that closed in September, line them up from cheapest to most expensive, and the one in the middle is the median. Condos and townhomes are not in it. That is a big reason it is higher, at $470,000. A median also moves with the mix of homes that sold. If more big homes in Summerlin close one month and fewer starter homes in North Las Vegas do, the median can rise even if no single house gained value.

Redfin's number is a median sale price for the whole metro. Like the REALTORS number, it is based on homes that actually sold. Unlike it, Redfin's metro figure includes condos. Mixing in lower-priced condos pulls the middle down, which is why it lands at $441,985, between the other two.

So which one should you use? It depends on your question. If you want to know whether the overall market is getting stronger or weaker, Zillow's index is a steady guide. If you own a detached house and want to know what the middle single-family sale looked like, the Las Vegas REALTORS median is the closest fit. If you own a condo or are buying one, Redfin's metro figure is closer to your world, because it includes condos. And if you want to know what your own home is worth, none of them is enough on its own.

You can see the same split in other data. Zillow says Las Vegas inventory is up 3.7 percent from a year ago. Redfin's same-month table shows active listings down 0.3 percent. Each company counts listings a bit differently. That is why we cite each number with its source and never mix one company's figure with another's year-ago figure.

Timing plays a part as well. A sale price reflects a deal that was usually agreed to a month or more before it closed. So September closings tell you a lot about what buyers and sellers agreed to over the summer. A value index like Zillow's tries to estimate where values stand now. When the market is turning, sale prices can lag behind a value estimate, and that alone can open a gap between them.

Pending sales give a hint of what is coming. Redfin says Las Vegas pending sales were down 10.9 percent from a year ago, and Zillow says newly pending sales fell 8.5 percent nationally. Fewer homes going under contract now usually means fewer closings next month. That does not tell us which way prices will move, but it does tell us the market is slowing into the fall.

This is also not the first time the "national up, Vegas down" story has shown up. It has come up several times this year. And earlier this month, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told Las Vegas REALTORS that prices here are "still on solid ground," noting the $470,000 September median matched last year but sat below the $490,000 June high, as reported by the Review-Journal.

A for sale sign in front of a home, a reminder that list prices and home value estimates are not the same thing

What Happens Next

Zillow says its October Market Report is expected Nov. 5. Las Vegas REALTORS and Redfin will put out October numbers around the same time. Watch whether the three start to point the same way. If Zillow keeps showing declines while the median sale prices stay flat, it may mean the homes that are selling are holding up, while the wider pool of homes is softening.

Mortgage rates will steer a lot of this. Freddie Mac's Oct. 15 survey had the 30-year fixed at 7.40 percent, up from 6.27 percent a year ago. Zillow's chief economist Mischa Fisher said the firm expects sales to stay below last year through the fourth quarter. He also said rates could fall as fast as they rose, which would bring buyers and sellers back. Until then, more price cuts and longer days on market are likely.

Supply matters too. Las Vegas REALTORS says there is about five months of single-family supply. Redfin has also reported that sellers far outnumber buyers here, which we covered in Las Vegas Has 125% More Sellers Than Buyers. That gives buyers room to negotiate, and it keeps pressure on asking prices.

The Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign, a reminder that Las Vegas home values follow their own local trend

Ryan's Take

I get this question all the time: "Which number is right?" My answer is that all three are right, and none of them is your house. Zillow tells you the direction of the whole market. The REALTORS median tells you what the middle single-family sale looked like last month. Redfin gives you a metro view that includes condos. Your home's value comes from the homes that sold near you, in your price range, in the last few months.

If you are in the southwest valley or Summerlin, your street might be doing better or worse than any of these. What I tell sellers is simple. Do not price off a headline. Price off real, recent sales of homes like yours, and adjust for condition. Buyers right now have choices, and they will walk past a home that is priced off last spring's number.

For buyers, the takeaway is good news. A softer value index, more inventory and more price cuts all point to a market where you can negotiate. You do not need to chase list price on every home. Ask for seller help with closing costs or a rate buydown, especially on homes that have been sitting.

A silver house key, a small red model house and a calculator on a dark table, representing a home valuation

What You Can Do

Read the label on every number. Ask three questions: Is this a value estimate or a sale price? Does it include condos? Is it for the whole metro or just single-family homes? Those three questions explain most of the gap between Zillow, Redfin and Las Vegas REALTORS.

Compare the same source over time. Zillow to Zillow, REALTORS to REALTORS. A trend from one source is more useful than a single number from three. If all three start moving the same way, that is a strong signal.

Treat online estimates as a starting point. An automated value is a good way to get in the ballpark, but it cannot see inside your home. It does not know about a new roof, a pool you added or a busy street behind the back wall. Use it to start a conversation, not to set a list price.

If you are buying, look at the price cut data on homes you like. A listing that has dropped its price once may have room to go further, especially with more sellers than buyers in the valley. Ask how long a home has been on the market and what similar homes nearby closed for in the last 90 days.

And if you want a real number for your own home, ask for a comparative market analysis. It looks at the homes that sold near you, not a whole-metro average. It is the best way to know what your home would likely sell for this fall, and it costs you nothing to ask.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com