Sellers Outnumber Buyers by 63 Percent Nationally. In Las Vegas It Is 125.5 Percent

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

Redfin published its monthly buyers versus sellers report on Oct. 14, 2026. The report was written by Dana Anderson and Asad Khan. It covers September data, and it estimates how many people are trying to buy a home and how many homes are for sale, both nationally and in the 50 most populous metro areas.

Nationally, Redfin estimates there were 1,510,784 sellers and 928,892 buyers in September. That works out to 62.6 percent more sellers than buyers. In August the national gap was 56.9 percent. Redfin says the number of buyers fell 2.4 percent from August, the fifth straight monthly drop, and is now the lowest in its records going back to 2013. The number of sellers rose 1.2 percent from August and is the most since March 2020.

Here in the Las Vegas metro, Redfin counts 14,234 sellers and 6,313 buyers. That is a 125.5 percent seller surplus, and Redfin labels Las Vegas a buyer's market. Las Vegas ranks sixth among the 50 metros for the biggest seller surplus. The five metros ahead of us are Miami at 158.9 percent, Nashville at 152.3 percent, Houston at 134.6 percent, Austin at 130.9 percent and San Antonio at 125.6 percent. San Antonio edges out Las Vegas by just one tenth of a point.

Redfin also says 41 of the 50 metros are now buyer's markets. That is the most in its records. Only four metros are balanced, and only five are seller's markets: Nassau County, New York; Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; Newark, New Jersey; Milwaukee; and San Francisco. In those five places, buyers still outnumber sellers.

So how does Redfin decide what counts as a buyer's market? A metro is a buyer's market when it has more than 10 percent more sellers than buyers. It is a seller's market when it has more than 10 percent fewer sellers than buyers. Anything in between is balanced. At 125.5 percent, Las Vegas is not close to the line. It is more than 12 times past it.

A modern house with real estate signs and flags out front, showing the kind of listing competition Las Vegas sellers face with 14,234 homes for sale

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Think about it like a line at a store. When there are more cashiers than customers, the customers get served fast and nobody rushes them. That is the Las Vegas housing market right now. Buyers have choices, and sellers are competing for their attention.

For buyers, this is a real change from a few years ago, when homes in Henderson, Summerlin and the southwest valley could get multiple offers in a weekend. With more than two sellers per buyer, you have room to ask for things. That might be a lower price, help with closing costs, money for a rate buydown, or repairs after the inspection. Redfin says buyers who have the budget and job security can be picky, push harder in negotiations and walk away from deals that do not make sense. That fits what the Las Vegas numbers show.

For sellers, the message is different. Your home is not just competing with the house down the street. It is competing with 14,234 other listings across the metro, according to Redfin's count. Buyers can scroll past a home that is priced too high and find three more that fit. A home that sits gets stale, and stale listings often end up selling for less than if they had been priced right at the start.

This also connects to other numbers we covered this week. Redfin reported that 18.6 percent of Las Vegas homebuying deals fell through in September, and Las Vegas REALTORS reported Southern Nevada sales fell 7.4 percent while national sales went up. When buyers have this many options, they are more willing to cancel a contract and move on to the next house. That is why sellers here should expect tougher negotiations, and buyers should know they are not stuck with a deal that turns sour.

Here is the national-versus-local gap in plain terms. Across the U.S., Redfin's numbers work out to about 1.6 sellers for every buyer. In Las Vegas, the same math works out to about 2.25 sellers for every buyer. So if you read a national story that says buyers have the upper hand, the Las Vegas version of that story is stronger. A seller here who prices off a national headline is still pricing for a market that is softer than the one they are actually in.

For homeowners who are not moving, this is not a reason to panic. Redfin notes that many owners who do not need to move are staying put because they have a lot of equity. A buyer's market mostly matters to people who are actively buying or selling right now.

Background and History

This is not a one-month blip. Redfin has been tracking the gap between sellers and buyers for years, and the national gap has been widening. Redfin says September was the fourth record-breaking month in a row for its national measure. The headline on its report calls it the biggest gap since the post-recession housing crash.

Why are buyers disappearing? Redfin points to high housing costs and economic uncertainty. Mortgage rates are rising while home prices are holding up, which squeezes what people can afford. Khan, Redfin's senior economist, put it simply: "This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength." In other words, buyers are not gone because homes are bad deals. They are gone because many people feel unsure about money and their jobs.

Why are sellers still listing? Redfin says many homes are sitting unsold, which piles up the number of active listings. Some owners are done waiting for lower rates or stronger demand. Others are selling because prices are still high enough to make a profit, or because life happens: a new job, a divorce, a growing family. Khan noted that sellers did not pull back nearly as fast as buyers did.

In Las Vegas, the trend is even sharper. Last month, Redfin had the metro at 6,628 buyers and 14,391 sellers, a 117.1 percent gap. In September, both numbers went down, but buyers dropped faster. Using Redfin's own figures, the buyer count fell by 315, or about 4.8 percent, while the seller count fell by 157, or about 1.1 percent. Fewer buyers chasing a slightly smaller pile of homes still adds up to a wider gap.

It is also worth looking at where the seller's markets are. All five are in the Northeast, the Midwest or the Bay Area: Nassau County, Montgomery County, Newark, Milwaukee and San Francisco. All five metros with a bigger seller surplus than Las Vegas are in the South: Miami, Nashville, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. Last month, Redfin's August report described the buyer's market as driven by the Sun Belt. Las Vegas sits right in that group. Fast-growing metros that built and listed a lot of homes are the ones where buyers now have the most room to negotiate.

One more thing to keep straight. Redfin's "sellers" number is the count of active listings in the MLS. Its "buyers" number is an estimate, built from Redfin data on how long it usually takes a buyer to go from a first tour to closing, plus MLS data on listings and pending sales. That means the buyer count is a model, not a headcount. It is still one of the best monthly reads we have on the balance of power, and the trend is what matters most.

Two women arriving at a front door and being greeted by another woman, like buyers touring a home during an open house in a Las Vegas buyer's market

What Happens Next

Redfin updates this report every month, so the October numbers should come out in mid-November. The thing to watch is whether the Las Vegas gap keeps growing or starts to level off. Redfin notes that its estimates are seasonally adjusted and can be revised, so small moves from month to month should not be over-read. The bigger trend matters more.

Mortgage rates are the big wild card. This week Fannie Mae said it expects 30-year rates around 7.5 percent through next year, and Freddie Mac's weekly average held at 7.40 percent. If rates stay there, the buyer pool is likely to stay thin. If rates ease, some of the buyers who are waiting on the sidelines could come back, and the gap could start to narrow. Nobody knows for sure which way it will go, so it is smart to plan for both.

There is also a pricing story to watch. Redfin found that in seller's markets, home prices rose an average of 6.4 percent year over year in August, compared with about 1 percent across buyer's markets. Las Vegas is firmly in the second group. That does not mean prices are crashing. It means prices are flat to slightly up, and the real negotiating is happening in credits, concessions and terms.

Ryan's Take

I talk to buyers every week who still think they need to offer over asking to win a house in Las Vegas. That is not the market we are in. With more than two sellers for every buyer, the buyer is in the driver's seat on most homes. That does not mean every home is a steal. The well-priced, move-in-ready homes in Summerlin and the southwest still sell. But on homes that have been sitting, there is often real room to negotiate on price, closing costs or a rate buydown.

For sellers, I always say the first two weeks matter most. That is when your home gets the most attention. If you come out too high in a market with 14,234 competing listings, buyers will skip you and wait for a price cut. Price it right, make it clean, and be ready to talk about credits. The sellers who adjust to this market are still getting their homes sold. The ones who price for 2022 are the ones sitting.

One last thing I want people to hear. A buyer's market is not a bad market. It is just a different one. If you are a move-up buyer, you may be selling into a soft market, but you are also buying into one. The discount you give on your sale can come back to you on your purchase. If you need to move for work, family or a new chapter, this market does not have to stop you. It just means you need a plan that fits the numbers we have right now, not the ones from three years ago.

A hand holding a house key above miniature model homes, a symbol of Las Vegas buyers gaining negotiating power with 125.5 percent more sellers than buyers

What You Can Do

If you are buying in Las Vegas, Henderson, Summerlin or North Las Vegas, get pre-approved first so you know your real budget at today's rates. Then use your leverage. Ask how long a home has been on the market. Ask for seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown, which can lower your monthly payment more than a small price cut. Do not skip the inspection, and do not be afraid to renegotiate if the inspection finds problems. You have options, so you do not have to settle.

If you are selling, look at what has actually sold near you in the last few months, not what neighbors are asking. Asking prices are wishes. Sold prices are facts. Get your home in clean, ready shape before it goes live, and think about offering a credit up front to stand out. Plan for a buyer who negotiates, and have a backup plan in case a deal falls through, since Redfin's numbers show that is happening more often here than nationally.

Buyers and sellers both should read the fine print on any deal. In a market like this, terms can be worth as much as price. A buyer might trade a slightly higher price for a bigger credit that lowers the monthly payment. A seller might accept a lower price in exchange for a faster close or fewer repair requests. Write down what matters most to you before you start, so you know what to give and what to hold onto when the back-and-forth begins.

If you own a rental or an investment property and are thinking about selling, the same rules apply. You are competing with every other listing in the metro, and buyers have time to compare. Get a clear picture of what similar homes sold for, think about whether a tenant in place helps or hurts your sale, and plan your timing around your own goals, not around the headlines.

If you are not buying or selling, keep an eye on the monthly Redfin report and on Las Vegas REALTORS data. These numbers shape what your home is worth when you are ready to move. A quick home value check now can help you plan for later.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com