Pending Home Sales Hit a Record Low Nationally, Down 16.4 Percent. Las Vegas Is Down 22.6 Percent

by Ryan Rose

What Happened: The National Number and the Las Vegas Number

Redfin published its weekly housing update on Nov. 5. The report, written by data journalist Dana Anderson, is titled "Homebuyers Get Some Relief as Prices Decline For Third Straight Week, Monthly Payments Dip." It covers the four weeks ending Nov. 1.

Redfin counted 275,484 pending sales across the country, adjusted for the time of year. That is down 16.4 percent from a year earlier and down 0.6 percent from the week before. Redfin says it is the lowest level in its records. By our math, that is roughly 54,000 fewer contracts than the same period last year.

Here is how the five biggest drops looked among the 50 most populous metros, according to Redfin:

Seattle: down 30.5 percent
San Diego: down 26.9 percent
Atlanta: down 26.3 percent
Denver: down 24.6 percent
Las Vegas: down 22.6 percent

Put the Las Vegas number in plain terms. For every 100 homes that went under contract here during those four weeks last year, about 77 did this year. Across the country, it was about 84. The actual count of Las Vegas pending sales: NOT FOUND in Redfin's report, which gives only the percentage for each metro.

This was not a Las Vegas problem alone. Redfin says pending sales fell in every single metro it analyzed, for the fourth week in a row. But some places are falling much harder than others, and ours is one of them.

The rest of Redfin's national report shows a market that is cooling on several fronts:

Median sale price: $388,604, down 0.4 percent from a year ago, the third straight week of declines.
Median monthly payment: $2,777 at a 7.24 percent mortgage rate, up 11.1 percent from a year ago, but at a five-week low.
New listings: 346,795, down 4.6 percent from a year ago and the lowest since January.
Active listings: 1,501,917, up 2.1 percent from a year ago.
Months of supply: 4.6, up from 4. Redfin says 4 to 5 months is considered balanced.
Listings with a price drop: 21.2 percent, up from 20.6 percent.

Las Vegas appears only once in the metro highlights of this report, on the pending sales list. Redfin does not give a Las Vegas price in this update, so for local prices we have to turn to Las Vegas REALTORS, which we do below.

Real estate agent holding paperwork next to a Sale Pending sign in front of a home

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Pending sales are one of the earliest signs of where a market is going. A contract signed today often turns into a closed sale a month or two later. So a steep drop now suggests closings could stay soft into the end of the year.

The closed sales are already slipping. Las Vegas REALTORS reported on Nov. 6 that single-family home sales in Southern Nevada fell 11.9 percent in October from a year ago, according to FOX5 and News 3. Condo and townhome sales fell 23.6 percent. Redfin's pending figure and the Las Vegas REALTORS sales figures come from separate data sets, so they will not match. Still, both point the same way.

If you are selling, this is the number to take seriously. Fewer contracts mean a thinner pool of buyers. Las Vegas REALTORS says Southern Nevada had nearly six months of supply at the October sales pace, up from just over four and a half a year ago. It also counted 8,112 single-family homes listed without an offer at the end of October, up 7.6 percent. More homes are chasing fewer buyers.

If you are buying, you likely have more room than you have had in a while. With fewer people writing offers, you may be able to ask for a lower price, repairs or help with closing costs. Redfin says the same thing nationally, noting that buyers may be able to negotiate lower prices or other concessions. In a metro falling faster than the nation, that leverage may be even greater.

The catch is the monthly payment. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.18 percent on Nov. 5, down from 7.24 percent the week before but up from 6.22 percent a year ago. Using the $475,000 October median from Las Vegas REALTORS with 20 percent down, principal and interest comes to about $2,574 a month. Last year's $474,370 median at 6.22 percent came to about $2,329. That is about $245 more each month for almost the same house. This is our own math, and it leaves out taxes and insurance.

If you own and are staying put, a drop in contracts does not change your payment. It also does not mean your home lost a fifth of its value. Pending sales measure how many deals are happening, not what homes are worth. The Las Vegas REALTORS single-family median was up 0.1 percent from a year ago in October. Short sales and foreclosures were just 1.1 percent of October sales. Slow does not mean distressed.

A slower market also touches people who are not buying or selling at all. Fewer contracts mean less work for the inspectors, lenders, escrow officers, movers and contractors who live and work here.

Background: How We Got to a Record Low

This is the third straight weekly Redfin report we can line up side by side, and the trend is easy to see. All of these figures come from Redfin:

Four weeks ending Oct. 18: 281,749 national pending sales, down 14.4 percent. Las Vegas down 20.6 percent, fifth biggest drop.
Four weeks ending Oct. 25: 276,352 national pending sales, down 15.9 percent. Las Vegas down 22.7 percent, fourth biggest drop.
Four weeks ending Nov. 1: 275,484 national pending sales, down 16.4 percent. Las Vegas down 22.6 percent, fifth biggest drop.

So the Las Vegas decline deepened by two points over two weeks, then held about steady in the latest week. That is worth knowing, because you may see an older number in the news. The Review-Journal reported on Nov. 6 that Las Vegas pending sales fell 20.6 percent, using the four weeks ending Oct. 18. That number was right for that period. The newer Redfin data is simply a little worse. Keep in mind that each four-week window shares three weeks with the one before it, so these readings overlap and move slowly.

Now, what does "record low" really mean? It is a true statement, but it has limits. Redfin's report says its weekly housing market data goes back through 2021. So this is the lowest level in about five years of weekly data, not the lowest level in all of American history. Redfin also says its data is subject to revision. And its definition of a pending sale leaves out homes that were listed for more than 90 days.

Other national reports show the same slowdown with different numbers. Zillow says newly pending listings fell 17 percent in October, the biggest year-over-year drop since 2023. The National Association of REALTORS said its pending home sales index was down 11.3 percent from a year earlier in September, and down 15.0 percent in the West, the region that includes Nevada. No two of these measure quite the same thing, but all of them point down.

Here is the national versus local picture in one place, and it is why you should always check both. On contracts, Redfin has the U.S. down 16.4 percent and Las Vegas down 22.6 percent. On home values, Zillow has the typical U.S. home up 0.7 percent from a year ago at $364,812, and the typical Las Vegas metro home down 2.7 percent at $419,499. Zillow also shows Las Vegas inventory up 3.6 percent from a year ago, and it estimates that sales here are down 5.4 percent.

Prices are where the sources split. Redfin's national median sale price is down 0.4 percent. The Las Vegas REALTORS single-family median is up 0.1 percent, counting only the homes that sold in October. Zillow estimates the value of homes in general, which is why its Las Vegas number is negative. None of these is wrong. They simply answer different questions.

Locally, the slide has been building for months. FOX5 coverage of the Las Vegas REALTORS reports shows single-family sales were up 18.3 percent from the prior year in June. They were up 1.2 percent in July, down 1.7 percent in August, down 7.4 percent in September and down 11.9 percent in October.

The main driver seems to be borrowing costs. George Kypreos, president of Las Vegas REALTORS, said in the October report, "We're seeing the impact of the recent rise in mortgage rates." With the 30-year average nearly a full point above last year, the same house costs a lot more each month, and fewer people are signing contracts.

Overhead view of houses, driveways and parked cars around a neighborhood cul-de-sac

What Happens Next

The next few weeks will bring more data, so there is plenty to watch. Redfin's last three weekly reports all came out on a Thursday, which suggests the next one could land around Nov. 12. Freddie Mac also updates its mortgage rate average every Thursday, and it has now reported three straight weekly declines.

Rates are the big thing to watch. Kypreos said in the Las Vegas REALTORS report, "I suspect these statistics would look a lot different if rates went back down by a percentage point or so." On the same loan we used above, going from 7.18 percent to 6.18 percent would save about $252 a month by our math. Nobody can say when, or if, that happens. It makes sense to plan around today's rate and treat any drop as a bonus.

The next Las Vegas REALTORS report should show whether the pending drop turns into a bigger drop in closed sales. Recent reports have been covered between the 6th and the 9th of the month, so the November numbers should arrive in early December. The National Association of REALTORS also has its October pending sales report still to come; its September report came out Oct. 20.

There are two other numbers worth following. One is the share of listings with a price drop, which Redfin has at 21.2 percent nationally. The other is months of supply here at home. If supply keeps climbing through the winter while contracts stay low, buyers will likely gain more leverage. If rates keep easing, some of those buyers may come back, and the gap between Las Vegas and the nation could narrow. We will keep tracking it.

Ryan's Take

The headline that matters here is not the national one. A record low across the country sounds scary, but the number that should get your attention in Las Vegas is the 22.6 percent. We are about six points worse than the nation, and that tells me our buyers are feeling these payments more than most. I would not read that as a crash. A flat median and 1.1 percent distressed sales do not look like one to me. I read it as buyers stepping back and waiting.

What has changed is who holds the leverage. I also want people to remember that a metro number is an average of a lot of very different places. Redfin's report does not break this down by neighborhood, and Summerlin, the southwest valley, Henderson and every other part of town can behave differently. A well-priced home in the right spot can still sell quickly. An overpriced one is going to sit. Your street and your price range matter more than any one headline, national or local.

Aerial view of rows of suburban homes and curving neighborhood streets

What You Can Do

If you are thinking about selling, price to what has actually sold nearby in the last 60 to 90 days, not to what the neighbors are asking. Las Vegas REALTORS says 72.4 percent of homes sold in October went within 60 days, so homes priced right are still moving. Fix the small things a buyer's inspector would flag. With fewer buyers writing offers, you want yours to be the easy yes.

If you are thinking about buying, run your monthly payment at today's rate first. Then look for homes that have been listed for a while, since those sellers may be more open to a lower price, a repair credit or seller-paid closing costs. Ask a lender whether a rate buydown makes sense for you. If rates fall later, a refinance may be possible, but it is never guaranteed and it comes with costs.

If you are staying put, you do not need to do anything because of this report. It is still smart to know your home's rough value and to read past the national headlines. When you see a big number about the U.S. housing market, ask what the Las Vegas number is. As this week shows, it can be quite different.

Person holding a set of house keys against a large red and white Sold sign

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime. Happy to look at what is going under contract in your part of town, with no pressure at all.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com