Zillow Estimates U.S. Home Sales Fell 8.7 Percent in October. Southern Nevada's Actual Count Fell 11.9 Percent for Homes and 23.6 Percent for Condos

by Ryan Rose

What Happened in the October Numbers

Zillow put out its October market report on Nov. 5, 2026. It says 304,105 existing homes sold across the country in October, based on what it calls a preliminary sales count nowcast. A nowcast is an estimate of what is happening right now, made before the final numbers exist. That figure is down 8.7 percent from a year ago and down 5.4 percent from September. Zillow says plainly that these figures will be revised mid-month.

The next day, Las Vegas REALTORS released its own October report, covered by FOX5 Vegas and News 3 Las Vegas. A total of 1,895 existing homes, condos and townhomes sold across Southern Nevada in October. Single-family sales fell 11.9 percent from a year earlier. Condo and townhome sales fell 23.6 percent.

The report does not give a single combined percent. But News 3 reported 2,216 total sales in October 2025. If you compare that with 1,895, that is 321 fewer sales, a drop of about 14.5 percent. That math is ours, and it uses the number as it was reported a year ago.

Here is how the numbers line up side by side:

U.S., Zillow preliminary estimate: down 8.7 percent from a year ago.
Las Vegas metro, Zillow preliminary estimate: down 5.4 percent from a year ago.
Southern Nevada single-family homes, local count: down 11.9 percent from a year ago.
Southern Nevada condos and townhomes, local count: down 23.6 percent from a year ago.
Southern Nevada all property types, our math from the local count: down about 14.5 percent from a year ago.

The dollar totals point the same way. Las Vegas REALTORS put October home sales at nearly $1 billion, down 10.1 percent from a year ago. Condo and townhome sales came to nearly $116 million, down 22.5 percent.

Zillow's report does not explain how the nowcast is built. It also does not say which property types it includes. So we cannot tell you exactly why Zillow's Las Vegas estimate and the local count are so far apart. What we can tell you is which number we would trust. When an early estimate and an actual MLS count disagree, the count wins.

Suburban house with a two-car and one-car garage and a for sale sign near the driveway on a sunny day

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Zillow's table covers 50 large metro areas. On its estimate, Las Vegas looks like one of the stronger markets in the country. Only seven of those 50 metros show a smaller drop or a gain: Buffalo, Raleigh, Milwaukee, Birmingham, Orlando, Cleveland and Providence. Phoenix shows a 16 percent drop. Los Angeles shows 18 percent. Salt Lake City shows 22.5 percent.

That table could give a Las Vegas seller the wrong idea. A seller who sees "Las Vegas only down 5.4 percent" may think buyers here are holding up better than buyers elsewhere. The local count does not back that up. It is not fair to rank our count against other cities' estimates, since those are two different kinds of numbers. But our own market clearly slowed by more than the 5.4 percent figure suggests.

Condo owners should pay the closest attention. A 23.6 percent drop is about twice the drop for single-family homes, and nearly three times Zillow's national estimate. No national headline this month comes close to describing that market. The share of condos and townhomes that sold within 60 days also fell, to 62.5 percent from 67.5 percent a year earlier. For single-family homes, that share went up a little, to 72.4 percent from 71.7 percent.

Prices tell the same split story. The median single-family home sold for $475,000 in October, up 0.1 percent from $474,370 a year ago. The median is the middle sale, so half sold for more and half sold for less. The condo and townhome median was $279,000, down 2.1 percent from $285,000. So house prices are flat while fewer houses sell. Condo prices are slipping while far fewer condos sell.

Supply is growing as sales shrink. FOX5 reported 8,112 single-family homes listed without an offer at the end of October, up 7.6 percent from a year ago. Condos and townhomes listed without an offer rose 6.7 percent. The sales pace works out to nearly six months of supply, up from just over four and a half months a year earlier.

This is another spot where Zillow and the local report do not match. Zillow says inventory in the Las Vegas metro is up 3.6 percent from a year ago, close to its 3.4 percent national figure. The local report shows bigger gains for both homes and condos. The two may not measure supply the same way, so treat them as separate numbers.

Buyers get more choices and more time from that. Sellers get more competition. Neither group gets much of an answer from a national number.

Background: How the Slowdown Got Here

This did not start in October. The local single-family decline has grown each of the last three months, and the condo decline has grown right along with it. Here is the recent trend from Las Vegas REALTORS, comparing each month with the same month a year earlier:

August: 2,252 total sales. Homes down 1.7 percent. Condos and townhomes down 7.4 percent.
September: 2,169 total sales. Homes down 7.4 percent. Condos and townhomes down 12.6 percent.
October: 1,895 total sales. Homes down 11.9 percent. Condos and townhomes down 23.6 percent.

Part of the drop from September to October is the normal fall slowdown, which is why the year-over-year comparison is the better test. By our math, total local sales fell about 12.6 percent from September to October. Zillow's national estimate fell 5.4 percent over those same two months.

Mortgage rates are the main reason both sides point to. The Associated Press reported that the 30-year average hit 7.4 percent in early October, its highest level in nearly three years. Freddie Mac's average for all of October was 7.33 percent, up from 6.86 percent in September. George Kypreos, president of Las Vegas REALTORS, told FOX5, "We're seeing the impact of the recent rise in mortgage rates." He also said the figures "would look a lot different if rates went back down by a percentage point or so."

A longer trend sits behind this one. Southern Nevada set a record with 50,010 properties sold in 2021. Sales have trended down since then, and 2025 had the lowest yearly total since 2007. October 2025 was already a slow month, with single-family sales down just over 10 percent and condo sales down nearly 9 percent from the year before. So this October's drop is a drop on top of a drop.

The national picture has been moving around, too. In September, the National Association of REALTORS said U.S. sales rose 1.5 percent from August but were still down 2.2 percent from a year earlier. Sales in the West were down 5.2 percent from a year earlier. Even then, Southern Nevada was falling faster than both.

Modern condominium building with rows of glass balconies and large windows

What Happens Next

Three things are worth watching over the next month. First, Zillow says its October figures will be revised mid-month, so the 304,105 estimate and the 5.4 percent Las Vegas estimate could both change. If they do, it is worth checking whether the Las Vegas figure moves closer to the local count.

Second, the National Association of REALTORS will publish its own October existing-home sales report. That will be the national number most news outlets quote. Keep in mind that NAR reports a seasonally adjusted annual pace, which is a different kind of measure from a raw monthly count.

Third, Las Vegas REALTORS should report November numbers in early December, based on the timing of its recent reports. Zillow's next report is expected Dec. 4. Its chief economist, Mischa Fisher, said "November is shaping up to have an even larger contraction" and that "next month is likely going to be the worst of it." He also said, "I expect the pace of the slowdown to ease into the new year." That is a national forecast. Zillow did not make one for Las Vegas.

One early sign backs up his caution. Zillow says newly pending listings fell 16.8 percent nationally from a year ago, the largest yearly drop since August 2023. A pending listing is a home with an accepted offer that has not closed yet, so pending numbers often show where closed sales are headed.

Rates have eased a bit since the peak. Freddie Mac's weekly average fell to 7.18 percent on Nov. 5, its third straight decline. Homes that go under contract now would close in a later report, so any help from lower rates will take time to show up in the count. No one knows where rates go from here, and we will not guess.

Ryan's Take

When I look at these numbers, the takeaway is simple. Be careful which number you believe, and know what kind of number it is. Zillow is useful. Its estimates come out fast, and they can show the general direction of a market. But an early estimate can miss by a lot in one city. This month, it looks like it did here.

The condo number is what stands out to me. The report does not say why condos fell so much harder, so this part is my opinion. Condo buyers are often watching their monthly budget very closely, and many also pay HOA dues on top of the mortgage. Here is an estimate that shows the squeeze. A $285,000 condo at last year's 6.22 percent rate, with 20 percent down, runs about $1,399 a month in principal and interest. A $279,000 condo at 7.18 percent runs about $1,512. The price went down $6,000, and the payment still went up about $113. These are our estimates using national average rates, and they leave out taxes, insurance and HOA dues.

I also do not read this as a crash. Kypreos said, "The demand for homes in Southern Nevada is still strong," and only 1.1 percent of October sales were short sales or foreclosures. Cash buyers were 26.2 percent of sales, close to the 26.5 percent from a year ago. What I see is a market that slowed down because money got more expensive, and condos are feeling it the most.

Smartphone calculator resting on printed reports with bar charts

What You Can Do

If you are selling a house: Do not set your price based on a national headline or a metro estimate. Look at what homes like yours have closed for near you in the last 90 days, and check how many similar homes are competing with yours today. With nearly six months of supply, buyers can compare, so your price and condition need to hold up next to the home down the street.

If you own a condo or townhome: Your market is different from the house market. Look at closed sales inside your own community, and find out how long they took. If you need to sell soon, plan for more time than you might have needed a year ago. Keep your HOA paperwork ready, since buyers and lenders will ask for it.

If you are buying: Slower sales can mean more room to talk about price, repairs or closing costs. That is especially true in the condo market. Still, run your full monthly payment first, with taxes, insurance and HOA dues included. Then get a real rate quote from a lender, because your rate may be higher or lower than the national average.

If you are just watching: When you see a sales number, ask three questions. Is it national or local? Is it an estimate or a count? Does it cover houses, condos or both? Those three answers will tell you more than the headline does.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com