NAR's Top Economist Told Las Vegas Realtors Relief May Not Come Until 2027

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

Lawrence Yun is the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS, or NAR. His forecasts get quoted all over the country. In October, he spoke to agents at the Las Vegas REALTORS headquarters. Buck Wargo of the Review-Journal reported on the talk in a story published Oct. 16, 2026, and said the event took place the week before.

The biggest news was how much Yun pulled back his own numbers. Last November he forecast that home sales would rise 14 percent in 2026 and prices would rise 4 percent. In Las Vegas, he told agents he now expects national sales growth of about 2 percent, if there is any growth at all. He expects prices to rise about 2 percent. He also said he expects new-home sales to fall 5 percent this year.

Then he turned to Las Vegas. Yun said local prices are "still on solid ground." His main reason is that there are very few distressed sales here. Distressed sales are foreclosures and short sales, the kind of forced sales that drag prices down fast. When there are not many of them, prices tend to hold.

He also pointed to the local numbers. The September median price for a single-family home in Southern Nevada was $470,000. That is the same as a year earlier. It is also below the $490,000 high the market hit in June. So prices have cooled a little from the summer peak, but they have not fallen below where they were a year ago.

On rates, Yun said that if mortgage rates move closer to 6 percent in early 2027, the market should see "good buying activity." He said he is optimistic about Las Vegas as soon as 2027. His reasons were job growth, wage growth and people moving here from other states, especially California.

Modern white two-story home with a backyard pool, the kind of property Las Vegas buyers are pricing out as mortgage rates stay above 7 percent

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

A lot of people in the valley are sitting on the sidelines right now. Some are renters who want to buy. Some are owners who want to move up or downsize. Many of them are waiting for one of two things: lower prices or lower rates. Yun's talk speaks right to that choice.

If you are waiting for prices to fall a lot, Yun is telling you not to count on it. Prices here are flat year over year, not falling. Distressed sales are low. In September, distressed sales were just 1.1 percent of single-family sales in Southern Nevada, according to Las Vegas REALTORS figures reported by FOX5. Nationally, NAR put distressed sales at 2 percent. Without a wave of forced sales, there is not much pushing prices down hard.

If you are waiting for rates, that is where Yun thinks the change will come from. Today rates are well above the 6 percent level he talked about. Freddie Mac's weekly survey on Oct. 15 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40 percent. A year earlier it was 6.27 percent. That gap is a big reason fewer homes are selling here. Las Vegas REALTORS reported that single-family sales fell 7.4 percent in September compared with a year earlier.

Here is what that means in real dollars. On a $470,000 home with 20 percent down, principal and interest comes to about $2,603 a month at 7.40 percent. At last year's 6.27 percent, it would be about $2,320. That is roughly $283 more a month today for the same house at the same price. Those numbers do not include taxes, insurance or HOA dues. This is why Yun keeps coming back to rates. The price did not change. The payment did.

The gap is even bigger for buyers who put less money down. With 3.5 percent down, the same $470,000 home runs about $3,140 a month in principal and interest at 7.40 percent, compared with about $2,798 at last year's rate. That is roughly $342 more every month. For a first-time buyer using an FHA loan, that difference can decide whether the home fits the budget at all.

It also helps to compare Las Vegas with the rest of the country. NAR reported that the national median existing-home price rose 1.3 percent in September to $417,500. Here, the single-family median did not move at all. So while prices are still inching up across the U.S., Las Vegas has gone flat. That supports Yun's view in both directions: prices here are not crashing, but they are not racing ahead either.

For sellers, the message is a little different. A median that is flat for the year but below June's $490,000 tells you buyers have some room to push back. Las Vegas REALTORS also counted about five months of supply in September. That is more choice than buyers had a couple of years ago. Sellers who price like it is still 2022 are likely to sit.

Background and History

To understand why Yun cut his forecast so much, it helps to look back at what he expected. Last November, his outlook for 2026 was hopeful. He was calling for a 14 percent jump in home sales and 4 percent price growth. Those numbers assumed buyers would come back in big numbers this year.

That did not happen. Rates climbed instead of falling. The Freddie Mac average sat at 6.27 percent a year ago and is at 7.40 percent now. Other forecasters have also turned more cautious. Fannie Mae's October housing forecast now expects the 30-year rate to average 7.5 percent in 2027, up from 6.7 percent in its September outlook. Fannie Mae also cut its 2027 national home price growth forecast to 0.6 percent.

That puts Yun on the hopeful side of the debate. He thinks rates closer to 6 percent in early 2027 are possible. Fannie Mae's forecast says 7.5 percent. Both are forecasts, and both could be wrong. What they agree on is that 2026 is a slow year and that rates are the thing to watch.

Las Vegas has its own history here too. This valley was one of the hardest hit places in the country during the foreclosure crisis more than 15 years ago. That is part of why so many locals expect prices to crash every time the market slows. Yun's point is that today's market looks very different. Distressed sales are low, and most owners are not being forced to sell. In September, cash buyers made up 23.5 percent of single-family sales here, compared with 27 percent nationally.

Aerial night view of the Las Vegas Strip and Bellagio fountains, a reminder of the tourism jobs that bring new residents to Clark County

New homes are a big part of the Las Vegas story, so Yun's call that new-home sales will fall 5 percent this year matters here. Builders have been a major source of supply in places like Summerlin, Henderson and the southwest valley. When new-home sales slow, builders often lean on incentives to keep buyers coming, such as help with closing costs or a lower rate. Those offers change often, so buyers should always ask the builder directly what is available on a given home.

What Happens Next

The next few months are mostly about rates. Freddie Mac posts its survey every Thursday. Fannie Mae and NAR both update their forecasts often. If rates start heading toward the 6s, Yun expects buyers to come back. If rates stay near 7.5 percent, as Fannie Mae now forecasts for 2027, the slow market could last longer.

Locally, Las Vegas REALTORS releases its monthly sales report early each month. The October numbers will come out in early November. Watch three things in that report: the median price, the number of homes sold, and months of supply. If the median holds near $470,000 and supply keeps growing, buyers will keep gaining room to negotiate. If sales pick up, it may be a sign the market is starting to turn sooner than expected.

Yun's longer view rests on jobs and people. He said job growth, wage growth and in-migration, especially from California, are why he is optimistic about Las Vegas as soon as 2027. Those are the things that create new buyers over time. As long as people keep moving here for work and lower costs than the West Coast, demand has a floor under it, even in a slow year.

There are also a few dates to keep on your calendar. The Federal Reserve meets again on Oct. 28. Redfin economists noted that September inflation came in hotter than expected, which has some people talking about a rate hike rather than a cut. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its moves and its tone can push them up or down. If the Fed signals that inflation is cooling, mortgage rates could ease. If it signals more hikes, the 6 percent rates Yun talked about may take longer to arrive.

What this means for different people in the valley:

First-time buyers: Prices are not running away from you, but the payment is the hurdle. Focus on what you can afford monthly, and look at down payment help programs your lender offers.
Move-up buyers: Your current home likely held its value. The trade-off is giving up a lower rate on your current loan for today's higher rate.
Sellers: Buyers have more homes to choose from. Price carefully and be ready to talk about credits.
Renters: If you are not ready to buy, this is a good window to save and build credit so you are ready if rates fall in 2027.

Ryan's Take

I talk with buyers every week who are waiting for prices to drop before they make a move. I get it. Nobody wants to buy at the top. But the data in this story lines up with what I see on the ground in the southwest valley and Summerlin. Prices are flat, not falling. Sellers who need to sell are making deals, but there is no flood of forced sales that would send prices way down. The real squeeze is the payment, and that comes from the rate.

So my advice is to stop trying to time the price and start running your own numbers. If the payment works for your budget today, and you plan to stay a while, this can be a good time to buy. You have more homes to pick from and more room to ask for things like seller credits toward closing costs or a rate buydown. If rates do fall in 2027, refinancing may be an option later. If the payment does not work today, that is fine too. Use the time to save, clean up your credit, and be ready when rates move. Either way, a plan beats waiting with no plan.

Two women going over notes at a table with a laptop, like a Las Vegas buyer reviewing payment options with a real estate agent

What You Can Do

If you are thinking about buying, start with a lender and get pre-approved. Ask them to show you a payment at today's rate and at a rate one point lower. That tells you how much a future rate drop would really save you. Then ask about seller credits and rate buydowns, because in a market with about five months of supply, sellers are more open to them than they were a few years ago.

If you are thinking about selling, look at what has actually sold near you in the last 60 to 90 days, not what sold in the spring. The valley's median peaked at $490,000 in June and was $470,000 in September. Pricing to today's market, and making your home easy to say yes to, matters more now than it did when buyers were fighting over every listing.

If you own your home and are not planning to move, there is good news here. With few distressed sales and a flat median, your equity is holding. Keep an eye on the monthly Las Vegas REALTORS reports and the weekly Freddie Mac rate, and you will know before most people when the market starts to turn.

One last tip for everyone: be careful with national headlines. A story that says "home sales are up" or "prices are rising" is usually talking about the whole country. In September, national sales rose while Southern Nevada sales fell, and the national median climbed while ours stayed flat. Local numbers from Las Vegas REALTORS tell you far more about your home than any national report. And a forecast, even one from a top economist, is a best guess, not a promise. Make your plan around your budget and your timeline, then adjust as the real numbers come in.