Golden Knights Goalies Are Covering for a Quiet Offense

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

Vegas played four road games in seven days, and the two goalies traded starts the whole way. In every game, the goalie gave Vegas a chance, and the team found enough to get something out of it.

Nov. 2 at Boston: Hart stopped 25 of 27 shots. Vegas lost in a shootout but earned a point.
Nov. 3 at Pittsburgh: Hill stopped 23 of 25 shots in a 3-2 win.
Nov. 5 at Detroit: Hart stopped 25 of 26 shots in a 2-1 win.
Nov. 8 at Buffalo: Hill stopped 28 of 29 shots in a 4-1 win.

Add that up and the two goalies gave up six goals in four games. Their combined save percentage on the trip was .944. Save percentage is simply the share of shots a goalie stops. A .900 goalie stops 90 of every 100 shots, so .944 means about 94 of every 100.

The Detroit game shows how thin the margin was. Neither team scored in the first two periods. Anton Johansson put Detroit ahead 2:02 into the third. Braeden Bowman tied it about two minutes later, and rookie Trevor Connelly won it with 1:42 left. Vegas needed every one of Hart's 25 saves, because it only scored twice on 33 shots.

Buffalo looks like an easy win on the scoreboard, but it did not start that way. The Sabres outshot Vegas 14-6 in the first period, and Hill stopped all 14. Vegas then scored twice in the second period, on a shorthanded goal by Mitch Marner and a goal by Jack Eichel. Tomas Hertl added two more in the third.

A quick note on that Buffalo number. The team's game story listed Hill with 27 saves on 28 shots. The NHL's official box score has him at 28 saves on 29 shots, so that is the number we are using here. He was named the third star of the game.

An ice hockey goalie defends the goal as a shooter closes in

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Start with what "quiet offense" really means here, because the season totals can hide it. Vegas has 63 goals in 19 games, which ranked 13th in the 32-team NHL as of Nov. 9. That sounds fine. But the first 10 games and the last nine games look like two different teams.

By our count from the NHL box scores, not including shootouts, Vegas scored 41 goals in its first 10 games. That is 4.1 per game. In the nine games since then, Vegas has scored 22. That is about 2.4 per game. The team has scored two goals or fewer in six of those nine games.

Teams that score that little usually lose a lot. Vegas is 4-3-2 over those nine games, which means it has stayed above water. The team kept earning points while the goals dried up, and it enters the homestand on a three-game winning streak. The goalies are a big reason why.

Now look at the goalie numbers on each side of the turning point. Over the first 12 games, Hart and Hill combined to stop 270 of 305 shots, a .885 save percentage. Over the last seven games, they have stopped 171 of 184, a .929 save percentage. Vegas is 4-1-2 in those seven games.

It is also worth asking whether the goalies simply got fewer shots to deal with. They did not. Vegas allowed about 25.4 shots per game over those first 12 games, and about 26.3 per game over the last seven. The workload went up a little, and the goals went down. That points to the goalies themselves. Vegas's 50 goals allowed ranked fifth fewest in the NHL as of Nov. 9.

That gap may look small on paper, but it is not small on the ice. Vegas gives up about 26 shots a night. On 26 shots, the difference between .885 and .929 is a little more than one goal per game. One goal is the difference between a win and a loss on many nights in this league.

For fans who live here, it changes what a night at T-Mobile Arena feels like. A team that wins 6-2 is fun. A team that wins 2-1 on a late goal is tense in the best way. If you have kids who play goalie at a rink around the valley, this is also a good stretch to sit them down and let them watch how much of the game runs through that one spot.

Background and History

Vegas entered this season with a clear plan on paper. Hart was the starter after he started all 22 of the team's playoff games last spring. Hill, who went into last season as the starter, moved to the backup role. On Sept. 9, SinBin.vegas writer Ken Boehlke projected a split of about 65 percent of starts for the starter and 35 percent for the backup, based on how Director of Goaltending Sean Burke has run things over the last four seasons.

It has not worked out that way so far. Hart has 10 starts and Hill has nine. Hill has actually done more winning, with a 7-2-0 record, a 2.54 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage. Hart is 5-3-2 with a 2.49 goals-against average and a .900 save percentage. Goals-against average is how many goals a goalie allows over a full 60 minutes. Neither goalie has a shutout yet.

The low point came in the span of three nights in October. On Oct. 20, Tampa Bay scored six goals on 21 shots against Hart at T-Mobile Arena. On Oct. 22 in St. Louis, the Blues scored six on 31 shots against Hill. Vegas lost both games 6-2.

Those season numbers look much better than they did two weeks ago. On Oct. 27, the Associated Press listed Hart with a .889 save percentage and Hill with a .882. That was the same day Hart left the morning skate with an injury, which made the timing even more stressful. The Review-Journal ran a story the next day under the headline "Golden Knights goaltending picture looks shaky if Carter Hart is out."

The worry made sense. Hart missed nearly three months last season with a left leg injury, according to the AP. Hill also missed a long stretch last season, and Carl Lindbom ended up getting eight starts in a 17-game span. Vegas knows how fast a goalie plan can fall apart.

This time it did not. Hill won that night against Ottawa, stopping 25 of 26 shots. Hart was back at practice two days later, served as the backup against New Jersey on Oct. 30, and then returned to the net in Boston. Hill's history helps explain why the team could stay calm. He came to Vegas in a trade on Aug. 29, 2022, and helped the team win its Stanley Cup the next spring. That run included a 23-save shutout in a 6-0 win over Dallas that closed out the Western Conference Final. A goalie who has done that does not rattle easily when he is asked to step back in.

A hockey goalie kneels in front of the net and watches the play develop

The advanced numbers back up what fans have been seeing. The Review-Journal reported that Hart's five-on-five save percentage stood at .940, with a 1.21 goals-against average, according to Natural Stat Trick. Five-on-five means both teams have their full group of skaters on the ice, which is most of a game. The same story said MoneyPuck credited him with 1.7 goals saved above what an average goalie would be expected to allow on the same shots.

Hill's recent run is just as steady when you check the box scores. In the four starts from Oct. 27 through Buffalo, he stopped 103 of 111 shots, a .928 save percentage. Hart stopped 68 of 73 in his three starts from Oct. 24 through Detroit, a .932 mark.

What Happens Next

Vegas now has a long look at home. All five games are at T-Mobile Arena:

Wednesday, Nov. 11: Utah Mammoth, 6:30 p.m. on TNT
Friday, Nov. 13: Nashville Predators, 7 p.m.
Sunday, Nov. 15: Vancouver Canucks, 6 p.m.
Tuesday, Nov. 17: Dallas Stars, 7 p.m.
Thursday, Nov. 19: Dallas Stars, 7 p.m.

The first thing to watch is who starts. Hart and Hill have traded the last four starts, which would put Hart in line for Utah if the pattern holds. We could not find a confirmed starter when this was written, so check the team's morning update on game day. There is a game every other night on this homestand with no back-to-back games, so the coaches can pick based on who is playing well instead of who is rested. The next back-to-back comes Nov. 27 and 28, at San Jose and then home against Montreal.

The second thing to watch is health in front of the goalies. Defenseman Noah Hanifin left the third period in Buffalo with an apparent injury, the Review-Journal reported. We could not confirm his status for the Utah game. If he misses time, the group in front of the net changes, and that can change the shots the goalies see.

The third thing to watch is the offense itself. A .929 save percentage is hard for any goalie to hold over a full season. Hot stretches cool off. If Vegas keeps scoring about 2.4 goals a game when its goalies come back to normal, those 2-1 wins can turn into 3-2 losses. The good sign is that Vegas scored four in Buffalo and has a chance to build on it at home.

A simple way to track it is to watch for three goals. Over the last nine games, Vegas has reached three goals only three times, and it won all three of those games. When the team stops at two or fewer, it is asking its goalie to be close to perfect. Over five home games, you will see pretty quickly which version of this offense shows up.

An empty hockey goal net sits on a blue ice surface

Ryan's Take

I coach an 8U hockey team here in Las Vegas, and I can tell you the goalie is the one kid on the ice who cannot hide. A forward can have a quiet shift and nobody notices. A goalie lets in one bad goal and the whole rink sees it. So I like watching a pair of grown pros deal with that pressure, with one of them coming back from an injury and the other taking on more work than the plan called for.

There is a home-buying lesson in it too. When the market gets quiet, like the Vegas offense has been, the basics are what carry you. Steady income, a clear budget and a home that fits your real life will get you through a slow stretch. Flashy features will not. I tell buyers to think about what holds up on an ordinary Tuesday, not just what looks good on a highlight reel.

Hockey also shapes how a lot of families here pick a neighborhood. Between City National Arena in Summerlin, Lifeguard Arena in Henderson and the other rinks around the valley, the drive to practice becomes part of the weekly routine.

A hockey goalie stands near the net on the ice before play resumes

What You Can Do

If you want to see this for yourself, the next two weeks are a great time. All five home games are at T-Mobile Arena. Check the Golden Knights schedule on NHL.com for tickets, and compare prices before you buy, since a weeknight game can cost less than a weekend one. Utah on Nov. 11 is also Military Appreciation Knight. If you are staying home, the radio call is on X 107.9 and 105.7 Maxima.

While you watch, try keeping track of the goalie for one period. Count the shots he faces and how many he stops. Then look for the second-chance shots, the ones that come right after a rebound, since those are the hardest to stop. By Nov. 19 you will have five more games to judge whether this run is real or just a hot streak. You can check save percentage for both goalies on the team stats page at NHL.com.

If you have a young player who wants to try goalie, ask about learn-to-play programs at a rink near you. And if you are thinking about a move, bring up the rink early. A long drive to early practice is something a family feels all season, so it is worth mapping before you pick a neighborhood.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.

Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com