Las Vegas, Seattle and Denver Posted the Biggest Home Price Drops in America. What They Share, and What the Small July Uptick Really Means

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

S&P Dow Jones Indices released its July 2026 Case-Shiller home price report on Tuesday, Sept. 29. Case-Shiller tracks the same homes as they resell over time. That makes it a good measure of true price change, because it is not thrown off by a month where more big homes or more small homes happen to sell.

Nationally, the index rose 1.9 percent over the year. The 20-City Composite rose 2.5 percent and the 10-City Composite rose 3.4 percent. Most of the 20 cities were up. A few, including Tampa, Portland and Dallas, slipped by less than 1 percent. Only three fell by more than 1 percent, and all three are in the West. In the release, Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices said Seattle posted the largest annual decline for the second month in a row, followed by Las Vegas and Denver.

Here are the three side by side, using the figures in the S&P release:

Seattle: down 1.57 percent over the year. From June to July, down 0.46 percent before seasonal adjustment, up 0.22 percent after.
Las Vegas: down 1.29 percent over the year. From June to July, up 0.08 percent before seasonal adjustment, down 0.18 percent after.
Denver: down 1.09 percent over the year. From June to July, down 0.35 percent before seasonal adjustment, up 0.13 percent after.

Notice something odd. Las Vegas is the only one of the three whose raw number went up for the month. But it is also the only one of the three whose seasonally adjusted number went down. That flip is the key to understanding the 0.08 percent uptick, and we will come back to it below.

Kaufman also described what she called a years-long East-West divide. Six of the eight Eastern metros in the index posted stronger year-over-year changes in July than in June, compared with just two of the eight Western metros. Chicago led the country for the fifth month in a row with a 6.9 percent gain.

Seattle skyline and the Space Needle with Mount Rainier in the distance, one of three Case-Shiller cities with falling home prices

What Las Vegas, Seattle and Denver Have in Common

These three cities look very different on a postcard. One is a rainy tech hub, one is a mountain city, and one is a desert built on tourism. But their home price charts look a lot alike. We pulled the full monthly Case-Shiller history for each city from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), which publishes the S&P data, and three things stand out.

1. All three ran up fast during the pandemic. From January 2020 to its peak, Seattle's index climbed about 62 percent. Las Vegas climbed about 56 percent. Denver climbed about 49 percent. That is a lot of price growth in a short time. Markets that rise that fast usually have more room to cool off when conditions change, while cities that grew slowly, like Chicago and Cleveland, had less to give back.

2. All three took a hit when rates jumped in 2022. When mortgage rates rose sharply in 2022, all three indexes fell. By our math from the FRED data, Seattle dropped about 16 percent from its May 2022 peak to January 2023. Las Vegas dropped about 11 percent from July 2022 to February 2023. Denver dropped about 9.5 percent from May 2022 to January 2023.

3. All three are softening again, but gently. After that 2022 to 2023 drop, all three recovered. Here is where Las Vegas is different. Las Vegas actually climbed back to a new all-time high in May 2025. Seattle and Denver never got back to their 2022 peaks. As of July 2026, Seattle is about 5.5 percent below its 2022 high, Denver is about 4.8 percent below its high, and Las Vegas is only about 1.9 percent below its May 2025 record.

So the three share a pattern: a big pandemic run-up, a sharp rate shock, a recovery, and now a slow cooling while the Midwest and Northeast keep climbing. That is the East-West divide Kaufman described, showing up city by city. What the index does not do is explain every local cause, and we will not pretend it does. Each of these cities has its own job market, building pipeline and buyer mix. What we can say is that the cities that sprinted the hardest from 2020 to 2022 are the ones walking now.

It also helps to look at the desert city we get compared to most. Phoenix had its own big pandemic run-up, yet it was basically flat for the year, up 0.05 percent. Its raw monthly number rose 0.15 percent in July and its seasonally adjusted number rose 0.20 percent. So Phoenix is a step ahead of Las Vegas right now. It is not falling, and its July was stronger than normal for the season. That tells us a big run-up alone does not decide which cities fall. Timing and local supply matter too.

There is one more layer worth knowing. Kaufman pointed out that home prices nationally have now declined in real terms, meaning after inflation, for 14 months in a row. Inflation ran 3.4 percent in July, with much of that driven by energy, while core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, rose 2.5 percent. When national prices rise 1.9 percent and overall inflation runs 3.4 percent, the typical home is losing a little buying power. In Las Vegas, Seattle and Denver, where prices are down even before inflation, the real drop is bigger.

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

For Las Vegas owners, the comparison is mostly good news. Our dip is real, but it is small. Being 1.9 percent off a record set just over a year ago is a very different situation from being 5 percent or more under a peak set four years ago. Since January 2020, the Las Vegas index is still up about 53 percent. It is also about 28 percent above the old 2006 bubble peak. Most Las Vegas owners who have been in their homes a few years are sitting on solid equity.

For sellers, the lesson is about pricing. If you read that prices are up 1.9 percent nationally and add a little to your list price, you will likely be priced above the market. Las Vegas REALTORS reported an August median single-family price of $475,000, down 1 percent from a year ago and $15,000 under the $490,000 record set in May and June. Buyers here have choices, with more than 10,000 single-family homes, condos and townhomes listed without offers at the end of August.

For buyers, a flat to slightly lower market means less pressure to rush. Prices are not running away from you. The bigger factor for your monthly payment right now is the rate, not the price. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.28 percent on Oct. 1, 2026, up from 7.03 percent the week before. A 1 percent price dip does not come close to offsetting a rate jump like that.

Denver city skyline with the Rocky Mountains in the background, another Western market where home prices declined in the July 2026 Case-Shiller report

Background: What the 0.08 Percent Uptick Does and Does Not Signal

Here is the plain-English version. Home prices have seasons. They usually rise in spring and early summer, when the most buyers are out, and soften in fall and winter. The "before seasonal adjustment" number is the raw change. The "seasonally adjusted" number tries to remove that normal seasonal swing, so you can see the underlying trend.

In July, Las Vegas rose 0.08 percent on the raw number. But July is normally a decent month for prices, so after removing the season, Las Vegas actually slipped 0.18 percent. In other words, a small July gain is weaker than a normal July. Seattle and Denver show the opposite. Their raw numbers fell, but after adjusting for the season, they rose a little. On that measure alone, Seattle and Denver had a slightly better July than Las Vegas did.

So what does the 0.08 percent tell you? It does tell you something useful when you compare it to last year. From June to July 2025, the Las Vegas index fell about 0.5 percent by our math. This year, it inched up instead. That is a big reason the yearly decline shrank from 1.9 percent in the June report to 1.3 percent in July. The comparison point from last summer was falling, and this summer it held flat.

The FRED data also shows that the Las Vegas index hit its recent low in February 2026 and has edged up about 1 percent since then, mostly during the spring season. That looks more like a market going sideways than one sliding. Here is what it does not tell you: that prices have turned up for good, or that a new run is starting. One month of a very small raw gain, in a month that is usually stronger, is not a trend. And Case-Shiller runs about two months behind. The July number blends sales from a three-month window, so it mostly reflects deals signed in the spring, before rates jumped above 7 percent.

What Happens Next

The next Case-Shiller release is scheduled for the last Tuesday of October, which falls on Oct. 27, 2026, and will cover August. Watch two things for Las Vegas. First, whether the yearly decline keeps shrinking. Last year, prices fell from July into the fall, so the comparison gets easier each month. If the yearly number moves closer to zero, that fits the sideways story. Second, watch the seasonally adjusted monthly change. A couple of months in a row above zero would be a stronger sign of a floor than one raw uptick.

Local data will come sooner. Las Vegas REALTORS is expected to release its September numbers in the first part of October. That will be the first local look at prices and sales after the late-September rate jump. Also keep an eye on Seattle and Denver. If all three Western cities keep narrowing their declines together, it points to a regional cooling that is leveling off. If Las Vegas lags while the other two firm up, that would point to something more local.

Ryan's Take

When people hear that Las Vegas has one of the three biggest price drops in the country, it can sound scary. I read it differently. We are in good company with two strong cities that also had a huge run, and of the three, Las Vegas is the closest to its all-time high. A 1.3 percent yearly dip after a 56 percent run is a breather, not a collapse.

On the 0.08 percent, I would not celebrate yet. The honest read is that prices in the valley have mostly gone sideways since early this year. That is a fine market to buy in if you negotiate well, and a fine market to sell in if you price it right from day one. In my work across the southwest valley and Summerlin, the homes that sit are usually the ones priced off last spring's record. The ones that are clean, repaired and priced to today's comps still sell.

House keys beside several small model homes, representing Las Vegas buyers and sellers deciding how to act on flat home prices

What You Can Do

If you are selling: Price off recent sales in your own neighborhood, not national headlines and not last spring's peak. Look at what closed in the last 60 to 90 days near you and what is still sitting. If your price is close to the top of the recent sales, make sure the condition matches. A sideways market rewards homes that look ready to move into.

If you are buying: Get pre-approved so you know your real payment at today's rates. With flat prices and plenty of homes for sale, ask about seller help with closing costs or a rate buydown. At 7.28 percent rates, lowering the rate even a little can do more for your monthly payment than a small price cut.

If you own and are staying put: Do not let a one-line headline change your plans. Check your home's value once or twice a year, keep up with maintenance, and watch the October Case-Shiller release and the next Las Vegas REALTORS report. Together they will show whether the sideways stretch holds.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime. Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com