Chicago Prices Are Up 6.9 Percent. Las Vegas Is the Second-Weakest Big Market in America

by Ryan Rose

What Happened

On Tuesday, September 29, 2026, S&P Dow Jones Indices released the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price report for July. It is one of the most watched home price reports in the country. It tracks what the same homes sell for over time, so it shows true price changes, not just shifts in which homes happen to sell.

The national index rose 1.9 percent over the past year. That is up from 1.6 percent in June, so national price growth picked up a little speed. The 10-City Composite, which tracks ten big metros, rose 3.4 percent. The 20-City Composite rose 2.5 percent.

The winners were mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. Chicago led at 6.9 percent. New York was next at 5.8 percent, then Cleveland at 4.2 percent. Boston, Miami, and San Francisco all gained more than 2.5 percent.

The losers were mostly in the West and the Sun Belt. Seattle fell 1.6 percent, the biggest drop for the second month in a row. Las Vegas fell 1.29 percent, second from the bottom. Denver fell 1.1 percent. Tampa, Portland, and Dallas also posted small declines. Rebecca Kaufman of S&P Dow Jones Indices named Las Vegas directly in the release as the second-largest annual decline among the 20 cities.

Aerial view of the Chicago skyline at night with fog, the city that led the Case-Shiller index with a 6.9 percent annual gain

Here are the Las Vegas numbers in plain terms. The Las Vegas index sits at 300.23. The index starts at 100 in January 2000, so that means a typical Las Vegas home is worth roughly three times what it was in early 2000. From June to July, Las Vegas prices rose 0.08 percent before adjusting for the season. After the seasonal adjustment, they fell 0.18 percent. In short, prices were flat to slightly down for the month and down about 1.3 percent for the year.

It helps to see Las Vegas next to other cities people move here from, or compare us to. Here is how the one-year change looked in July:

Chicago: up 6.86 percent
New York: up 5.78 percent
San Diego: up 1.63 percent
Los Angeles: up 1.24 percent
Phoenix: up 0.05 percent
Dallas: down 0.44 percent
Denver: down 1.09 percent
Las Vegas: down 1.29 percent
Seattle: down 1.57 percent

Notice where the lines fall. Southern California, where many Las Vegas buyers come from, is still rising a little. Phoenix, our closest desert rival, is flat. Las Vegas sits near the bottom with the other Western cities that ran up fastest in recent years.

Cotality, the data company behind the index, put out its own summary the same day. Its principal economist, Thomas Malone, said price growth is gaining momentum, but unevenly. He also pointed to higher mortgage rates as a moving target for buyers. Cotality noted that monthly price growth nationally was just 0.1 percent in July, below the pre-pandemic July average of 0.5 percent.

Why It Matters to Las Vegas Residents

Most people hear about home prices from national news. A TV anchor says "prices are up," and people assume that means their street. This report shows why that is a risky guess. In the same month the country gained 1.9 percent, Las Vegas lost 1.29 percent. That is a swing of more than three points between the national headline and our local reality.

If you are a buyer, this is good news in a quiet way. Prices are not crashing. But they are not running away from you either. Las Vegas REALTORS reported 7,590 single-family homes listed without offers at the end of August, up 5.3 percent from a year ago. Condos and townhomes without offers rose 6.0 percent to 2,714. The market had just over 4.5 months of supply. More homes sitting for sale plus flat prices means buyers can ask for more: a lower price, seller help with closing costs, or a rate buydown.

If you are a seller, the lesson is the opposite. Do not price your home off what you read about Chicago or New York. Buyers in Las Vegas have choices right now. A separate Realtor.com report this week found about one in four Las Vegas listings cut its price in September. Homes priced right from day one tend to avoid that. Homes priced off a national headline often end up chasing the market down.

If you already own and are not moving, take a breath. A 1.29 percent dip on a $475,000 home is roughly $6,000 on paper. That is real, but it is small next to the gains most Las Vegas owners have built over the past several years. The index is still near three times its 2000 level. For long-term owners in places like Green Valley or Centennial Hills, this is a pause, not a reversal of what you have built.

Condo and townhome owners have a slightly different picture. Las Vegas REALTORS put the August condo and townhome median at $299,900, up 0.6 percent from a year ago. That is still below the record of $315,000 set in October 2024. So the smaller, lower-priced end of the market is holding about even, while single-family homes are the part that dipped. For first-time buyers who are open to a townhome, that lower price point can make the math easier at today's rates.

People moving here from California should pay attention too. Los Angeles prices were still up 1.24 percent over the year, and San Diego was up 1.63 percent. That means the price gap between Southern California and Las Vegas got a little wider this year. For someone selling in L.A. and buying here, their dollars go a bit further than they did a year ago.

Mortgage rates are the other half of the story. Mortgage News Daily reported the average 30-year fixed rate hit 7.58 percent on September 29, the highest since 2023. We ran the numbers in our mortgage rate story. On the $475,000 median with 20 percent down, the rate jump adds far more to a monthly payment than the small price dip takes away. That is the push and pull buyers feel right now.

Background and History

This is not a one-month blip. Las Vegas has sat near the bottom of the Case-Shiller list for several reports in a row. In the May report, Las Vegas was down 1.9 percent and was the weakest of all the big metros. In the June report, Las Vegas was down 1.9 percent again and ranked second-weakest behind Seattle. July's drop of 1.29 percent is a bit smaller, so the decline may be easing. But it is still a decline.

Why is the West lagging while the Midwest leads? The report does not give one single cause, but the pattern is clear. Cities like Chicago and Cleveland never had the huge run-up that Sun Belt cities saw during the pandemic years. Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tampa, and Denver drew a wave of buyers from higher-cost places, and prices climbed fast. When rates rose, those fast-rising markets had more room to cool. Phoenix, for example, was basically flat at 0.05 percent for the year. Dallas and Tampa were slightly negative.

Kaufman's commentary also made a bigger point. With inflation at 3.4 percent, national home prices are rising more slowly than the cost of living. She noted that real, inflation-adjusted home prices have now declined for 14 months in a row across the country. So even where prices are rising on paper, they are losing ground after inflation. In Las Vegas, where prices are down on paper too, the inflation-adjusted drop is larger.

The local data lines up with Case-Shiller. Las Vegas REALTORS said the August median single-family price was $475,000. That is $15,000 below the record of $490,000 set in May and June of this year. Sales slowed too. Single-family sales fell 1.7 percent from a year ago, and condo and townhome sales fell 7.4 percent. LVR President George Kypreos said rising mortgage rates are weighing on the market, even though prices have stayed fairly stable this year.

What Happens Next

Case-Shiller comes out on the last Tuesday of every month. The next release should land on October 27, 2026, and will cover August. Keep in mind that Case-Shiller runs about two months behind, and each reading blends sales from a three-month window. So the July report mostly reflects deals that closed in late spring and early summer. It does not yet show the effect of the late-September rate jump.

Faster local numbers come from Las Vegas REALTORS. Its report on September sales should come out in the first part of October. That report will be the first real look at how the higher rates hit local prices and sales. Watch three things: the median price, the number of homes without offers, and the share of homes selling within 60 days. In August, 74.8 percent of single-family homes sold within 60 days. If that share drops, the market is slowing further. If it holds, buyers are still out there.

Also watch mortgage rates. If rates stay near three-year highs, expect more price cuts and more seller help with closing costs into the fall and winter. If rates ease, some buyers who are sitting on the sidelines may come back. That could firm up prices faster than the national reports suggest.

One more thing to watch is cash buyers. In August, 21.9 percent of Las Vegas sales were paid in cash, down from 22.9 percent a year earlier. Cash buyers do not care about mortgage rates, so they often keep a market steady when rates climb. If that share keeps slipping, it would be another sign that demand is cooling. If it rises, it could help put a floor under prices.

Ryan's Take

Here is how I read this. Las Vegas is not in trouble. Prices are down about one percent in a year. Only 1.0 percent of August sales were distressed sales, which tells me owners are not being forced to sell. What we have is a normal market after a very abnormal few years. Buyers finally have some leverage, and sellers have to be smart about price and condition.

I also want to be clear about neighborhoods. A metro-wide number is an average. In my work across the southwest valley and Summerlin, some pockets hold value well and some need a price cut to move. Updated homes in good locations still sell. Homes that need work, or that were priced off last spring's record, are the ones sitting. If you are buying, this is a good time to be picky and to negotiate. If you are selling, price it for the market we have today, not the one on the national news.

What You Can Do

If you are buying: Get pre-approved first so you know your real payment at today's rates. Then ask about seller concessions. With over 4.5 months of supply and more homes without offers than last year, asking a seller to help with closing costs or a rate buydown is fair game. A buydown can lower your monthly payment more than a small price cut.

Red Rock Canyon sandstone cliffs on the western edge of the Las Vegas valley under cloudy skies

If you are selling: Ask for a pricing plan based on recent sales in your own neighborhood, not national reports. Look at what sold in the last 60 to 90 days near you, and what is sitting. Clean, repaired, and well-priced homes stand out when buyers have choices. Pricing right the first time usually beats a string of price cuts.

If you are renting and thinking about buying: Flat prices give you time to plan without feeling rushed. Use it. Check your credit, build your down payment, and look into down payment help programs you may qualify for. When you are ready, a market with more listings and more motivated sellers is a better place to shop than the bidding wars of a few years ago. Just run the payment at today's rates, not the rates you hope to see.

If you own and are staying put: Check your home's value once or twice a year so you know where you stand. Keep an eye on the October Case-Shiller release and the October Las Vegas REALTORS report. Together they will show whether this dip is flattening out or picking up speed.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime. Ryan Rose | Real Broker, LLC | 702-747-5921 | ryan@rosehomeslv.com | rosehomeslv.com