National Inventory Is Still 9 Percent Below Normal. Las Vegas Now Has a Five-Month Supply

by Ryan Rose

What the September Numbers Say About Your Competition

Start with the national report, because it is the one most people hear about. Realtor.com released its September housing report on Sept. 30. It counted 1,161,615 homes for sale across the country. That is up 5.4% from last year and up 1.9% from August. New listings were 394,830, down 0.7% from a year ago. Homes going under contract were down 4.1% from last year, the second straight monthly drop. The national median list price was $419,250, down 1.4%, and the typical home sat for 61 days.

Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale summed it up this way: "buyers are gaining leverage, but higher mortgage rates are limiting how much of that opportunity they can use." In plain words, buyers have more choices, but high rates keep many of them on the sidelines.

Now look at the Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas metro in that same report. Active listings here were up 6.3% from a year ago, faster than the 5.4% national gain. New listings were down 0.3%. That detail matters. It means supply is not growing because a flood of new sellers showed up. It is growing because the homes already for sale are taking longer to sell. The median list price in our metro was $464,900, down 2.1%, and price per square foot was down 2.8%. Homes stayed on the market about one day longer than a year ago.

Las Vegas REALTORS (LVR) filled in the local detail on Oct. 6. Its count of single-family homes listed without an offer at the end of September was 7,995, up 6.6% from a year ago. Condos and townhomes without offers were 2,796, up 7.3%. Total sales across homes, condos and townhomes were 2,169. Single-family sales were down 7.4% from a year ago, and condo and townhome sales were down 12.6%. LVR said that sales pace works out to about a five-month supply.

The median single-family price was $470,000, flat with September 2025 and down 1.1% from August. It is $20,000 below the $490,000 record set in May and June. LVR President George Kypreos said, "Recently rising mortgage rates are playing a bigger role in the housing market." Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on Oct. 8, up from 6.30% a year earlier.

A quiet residential street with a sidewalk and trees at sunrise, similar to the neighborhoods where Las Vegas sellers now face more competing listings

Why a Five-Month Supply Changes the Game for Sellers

Months of supply is a simple idea. It asks how long it would take to sell every home on the market if no new listings came in. Our buyer explainer walks through the math in detail, so here is the short seller version. A low number means buyers fight over homes. A higher number means homes fight over buyers. Many people in the industry treat about six months as a balanced market. At about five months, Las Vegas is close to that line and much closer than it was a year ago.

For a seller, that means three things.

First, buyers can compare. When there are nearly 8,000 single-family homes without an offer, a buyer touring on a Saturday can see your home and five others like it in the same afternoon. They will notice if yours costs more per square foot, needs new carpet, or has a dated kitchen. In a tight market, buyers forgive a lot. In a five-month market, they compare.

Second, the first few weeks matter more than ever. Here is a number that surprises people. LVR reported that 75.9% of single-family homes that sold in September went under contract within 60 days. That is up from 72.0% a year ago. For condos and townhomes, it was 70.5%, up from 67.0%. So even with more supply, the homes that sell are still selling fairly fast. The homes that do not sell quickly are the ones piling up in the "no offer" count. The market is splitting into homes that are priced and prepared right, and homes that sit.

Third, your neighbors' old prices may not apply. The record was set just four months ago, in May and June. A lot of sellers still have that $490,000 peak in their heads, or a neighbor's spring sale price. But the median is now $470,000, and the metro list price is down 2.1% from a year ago. Pricing off a spring comp without adjusting is one of the easiest ways to end up in that pile of 7,995 homes.

Condo and townhome sellers face a tougher version of the same market. The no-offer count for condos and townhomes rose 7.3% to 2,796, a bit faster than the 6.6% gain for single-family homes. Condo and townhome sales fell 12.6%, compared with 7.4% for houses. The condo and townhome median was $290,000 in September, down 1.4% from a year ago. If you own a condo, expect buyers to compare your unit closely with others in the same complex, and with the HOA dues and amenities of nearby communities. The good news is that 70.5% of condos and townhomes that sold still went under contract within 60 days, up from 67.0% last year. Priced right, they still move.

This also matters if you are a homeowner who is not selling. The homes that sit and then cut their price can become the next comps in your neighborhood. The more of them there are, the more they shape what an appraiser sees when your neighbor sells, or when you refinance later on.

How Las Vegas Got Here While the Nation Lags Behind

The gap between Las Vegas and the rest of the country did not happen overnight. During the pandemic years, inventory dropped to record lows almost everywhere. Low rates pulled buyers in fast, and many owners who locked in very low mortgage rates chose not to move. That kept listings scarce for years.

Nationally, inventory has been climbing back slowly, and Realtor.com says it is still about 9.1% short of the typical pre-pandemic level. Las Vegas has moved faster. Our earlier coverage noted the valley passed 10,000 total listings for the first time since 2014. Now LVR's numbers show the supply cushion growing again in September, with both single-family and condo listings without offers up from last year.

Part of the reason is demand, not supply. Look again at the new listings number: down 0.3% in our metro. Sellers are not rushing to list. Instead, fewer buyers are signing contracts. Sales of single-family homes fell 7.4% and condo sales fell 12.6%. Mortgage rates are the big driver. At 7.40%, a buyer pays a lot more each month for the same price than they did a year ago at 6.30%. Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel put the national trend this way: "It is arriving as demand cools in response to higher borrowing costs."

What has not happened is a wave of forced sales. LVR said short sales and foreclosures were just 1.1% of September sales. Cash buyers made up 23.5% of sales, about the same as last year's 23.0%. So this is a market where buyers have more choice and less urgency, not a market in distress. That distinction matters for sellers. You do not need to panic. You do need a plan.

It also helps to remember where prices still stand. Even after three months of slipping from the June peak, the $470,000 median is flat with a year ago. Prices have softened from the spring record, but they have not fallen below last year. Before you list, compare what you paid and what you owe with today's market, not with the May and June peak. That tells you how much room you have to price competitively. Sellers who are counting on a spring 2026 price to make their next move work are the ones most likely to feel squeezed.

A bright living room with a sofa, coffee table and open kitchen, the kind of clean, uncluttered space that helps a listing stand out when buyers have more choices

What Happens Next for Las Vegas Sellers

The next big data points are the October numbers. Las Vegas REALTORS usually releases its monthly report in the first week of the following month, so October figures should arrive in early November [NOT VERIFIED: exact release date]. Realtor.com's October report should come around the end of the month. Watch three things: whether the months of supply goes past five, whether the "without offer" count keeps rising, and whether the share of homes selling within 60 days holds up.

Mortgage rates are the wild card. Freddie Mac publishes its rate survey every Thursday. Rates rose from 7.28% to 7.40% in a single week in early October. If they keep climbing, more buyers may wait, and supply could keep building. If they ease, some of those buyers could come back. Kypreos said it plainly: "we don't know what's going to happen with rates in the near future."

Seasonality is the other factor. Fall and winter are usually slower months for home sales in most markets, with fewer buyers out touring during the holidays. A seller listing in October is entering a quieter stretch of the calendar with more competition than last year. That does not mean you cannot sell. It means the homes that get attention will be the ones that look like the best value on the day a buyer is searching.

Ryan's Take

A five-month supply is not a crash. Prices are flat with last year, distressed sales are rare, and three out of four homes that sold in September went under contract within 60 days. What it is, is a market that rewards sellers who show up ready and punishes sellers who test the waters. The no-offer count of 7,995 homes is mostly made up of listings that came on at a spring price in a fall market.

The national story makes this harder to see. If you read that inventory is still 9% below normal across the country, it is easy to think you have the upper hand. In Las Vegas, that is not the case anymore. The useful comps right now are the homes that sold in the last 60 to 90 days near you, plus the homes that are competing with you today. Old peak prices and national averages are not much help. Southwest valley and Summerlin sellers in particular should look at what is active in their own price band and their own neighborhood, not the valleywide median, because the competition varies a lot from one area to the next.

A staged open plan living area with a dining table and grey sofa, showing how presentation helps a home compete in a five-month supply market

What You Can Do If You Are Selling This Fall

Price to the current market, not the peak. Ask for a pricing review that uses recent closed sales and today's active listings in your price range. Pay attention to price per square foot, since that number is down 2.8% in our metro from last year. Pricing right at launch usually beats a series of cuts later, because your listing gets the most attention in its first weeks.

Prepare like buyers are comparing, because they are. Fix the small things a buyer will notice: paint touch-ups, worn carpet, dripping faucets, burned-out bulbs and a tired front yard. Declutter and clean before photos. Good photos matter more when a buyer scrolls past dozens of similar homes. A pre-listing inspection can also help you find issues early, so they do not turn into a renegotiation later.

A tidy front porch with a dark front door and white wicker furniture, an example of the curb appeal that helps a listing win the first showing

Plan for the first 30 days. Since most homes that sell go under contract within 60 days, decide ahead of time what you will do if showings are slow. Set a check-in date, maybe two to three weeks after listing, to review showing feedback and online views. If buyers are looking but not making offers, the price or the condition is usually the reason. Adjusting early tends to work better than waiting until your listing looks stale to every buyer who has been watching it.

Think about what buyers need right now. With rates near 7.40%, the monthly payment is the main hurdle for many buyers. Ask about options like a seller credit toward closing costs or a rate buydown. Sometimes these help a buyer more than a small price cut does. Also check your timing. If you can wait until spring, compare that with listing now, keeping in mind that nobody knows where rates will go.

Watch your own neighborhood's numbers. Track how many homes like yours are listed, how long they are sitting, and what they actually sell for. That tells you more than any national headline.

Have questions about how this affects your home or neighborhood? Reach out to Ryan Rose or text/call 702-747-5921 anytime.